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Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet
Also posted on my blog as usual. Read it there if you can, there are footnotes and inlined plots. A couple of months ago, MicroStrategy (MSTR) had a spare $400M of cash which it decided to shift to Bitcoin (BTC). Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea. When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust. However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”
Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:
Is Bitcoin money?
No. Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves: 1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own. As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get. You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there? 2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile. If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point: 3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away. For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast. On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad. One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy. If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due. Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.
BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built in
Some people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense. Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run. See here Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well. Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money. Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand. Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control. It's also a national security risk... The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca. He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade. This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.
Currencies are based on trust
Since the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged? The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president. People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all. It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board. For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.
In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government." The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.
BTC is not gold
Gold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value. How do we know that? Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan. Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well. Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties: First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment. Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials. Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans. It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods. To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that. On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
Means of Exchange: if people seriously start using BTC to buy pizzas, then this creates a real demand for the currency to accomplish the short-term exchanges. As we saw previously, I'm not personally sold on this one and it's currently a negligible fraction of overall demand.
Criminal uses: Probably the largest inbuilt advantage of BTC is that it's anonymous, and so a great way to launder money. Hacker gangs use BTC to demand ransom on cryptolocker type attacks because it's a shared way for an honest company to pay and for the criminals to receive money without going to jail.
Apart from these, it's hard to argue that BTC will retain value throughout some sort of economic catastrophe.
BTC is really risky
One last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview
"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds. But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:
A critical software vulnerability is found in the BTC codebase, leading to a possible exploitation.
Xi Jinping decides he's had enough of rich people in China hiding their assets from him and bans BTC.
Some form of bank run takes hold for whatever reason. Because BTC wallets are uninsured, unlike regular banks, this compounds into a Black Tuesday style crash.
Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficient
Blockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science. That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale. The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
BTC was estimated to use as much electricity as Belgium in 2019. It's hard to trace where the BTC mining comes from, but we can assume it has a huge carbon footprint.
A single transactions is necessarily expensive. A single transaction takes as much electricity as 800,000 VISA transactions, or watching 50,000 hours of youtube videos.
There is a large necessary tax on the transaction, since those checking the transaction extract a few BTC from it to be incentivized to do the work of checking it.
Many design problems can be mitigated by various improvements over BTC, but it remains that a simple database always works better than a blockchain if you can trust the parties to the transaction.
MicroStragegy’s Bitcoin Play is Just Smart Business, Nothing Else: CEO Explains
MicroStrategy has been featuring more in cryptosphere and it all started when it converted its primary asset base into Bitcoin. However, the business intelligence software provider is also staying aware of the possible swings in Bitcoin’s price and is ready to sell at a moment’s notice. Safety Amid an Economic Downturn Earlier this week, Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy’s chief executive, sat for an interview with Bloomberg, where he spoke about the firm’s shocking move to hold over $400 million in Bitcoin. There, he explained that they see Bitcoin as a safer asset, especially compared to cash and gold. Saylor explained in part that he chose to make the move to Bitcoin because he had seen the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on traditional assets. Before the pandemic hit, the firm had about $500 million in assets, which it had invested primarily in short-term government securities. Sadly, the pandemic caused yields on the securities to tumble, and Saylor knew that the company had to move into something more reliable. “Once the real yield on our treasury got to more than negative 10%, we realized that everything we are doing on P&L is irrelevant. We really felt we were on a $500 million melting ice cube,” he said. The company eventually found the safety it sought with Bitcoin. In July, MicroStrategy announced in a formal announcement that it had switched its primary asset base to the leading cryptocurrency, purchasing about 21,454 BTC for $250 million. Among other things, the Virginia-based tech giant highlighted that Bitcoin had proven itself a dependable store of value. In the weeks since then, MicroStrategy has doubled down. In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), it confirmed that it could purchase even more of the asset. However, that would only happen after assessing its cash needs and business strategy. Just Business for MicroStrategy Days later, the company purchased an additional 17,000 BTC tokens — bringing its total Bitcoin haul to about $425 million. Considering that it is putting a lot of its eggs in the crypto basket, Bloomberg was curious about whether Saylor was worried about Bitcoin’s famed volatility and how much a sharp price drop could gut his firm. However, Saylor brushed off any concerns. In part, he said: “We can liquidate it any day of the week, any hour of the day. If I needed to liquidate $200 million of Bitcoin, I believe I could do it on a Saturday.” Saylor added that the asset’s volatility isn’t much of a problem as he could quickly move away from it and get the company’s money back. The CEO also pointed out that he wasn’t committing to Bitcoin as a passion project. He noted that his firm’s decision to buy the asset was merely due to its proven stability over the past few months, and he would liquidate his company’s holdings if he saw some other alternative assets with greater yields. For now, however, Saylor is all-in on Bitcoin. The CEO further predicted that more companies would make similar moves, adding that private companies are currently in the right position.
Opening Date and Time – Friday August 14, 2020 – (8am Mountain Time) Stores – US Terms and Conditions Please be aware that USPS is experiencing extended shipping delays. Please allow up to 21 days for shipping, even when using priority mail. To deal with continued shipping delays with USPS we have decided to limit the amount of orders we take through the store. Our hope is that this will allow us to process orders in a timely manner, but also have the bandwidth to follow up with customer service issues that could result from extended shipping delays. The store will close when we hit our order limit, this does not mean all items are sold out. WE expect to hit this limit in the first few hours of store opening, so be sure to place your order as quickly as possible. We will open the store again when all orders have processed, and shipping issues have been dealt with. In the meantime, you can order from several Seed Banks that have our stuff in stock! > https://www.mephistogenetics.com/stockists/usa-distributors
Please allow 10 BUSINESS days for your order to process and ship. An order status of processing means your payment has been approved and is awaiting shipment. You will receive a tracking email once your order has shipped.
Orders are processed on a first come, first served basis, first paid first shipped basis.
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Fugue State Restock Genetic Heritage - Amnesia Haze Bx1 (Archive Seeds) x Walter White F5 Seed Type: F5 Feminised Automatic Project introduction and Overview: Fugue State: A Mephisto Twist on a modern classic. Amnesia is a strain that's been held in very high regard for a long time, and with good reason too! Great growth, high yielding, a strong effect, which equals a high grade headstash with commercial applications. She has a lot of positives to say the least. Although nearly everyone offers an amnesia or amnesia haze in their line up, take a look at ours :) We acquired several packs of Amnesia Haze BX1 from Archive seeds back in 2015-2016 and without much delay got to popping them to see what we uncovered. We did this simultaneously against several amnesia cuts we'd ran, from elite versions to the local cut, we made seeds with all using our Walter White as the pollen donor. When growing out the F1's the most consistent and quality plants were emerging from the Archive cross, we made our selection and continued on from there. Another reason for this project was that we felt our catalogue was in need of more sativa options and we wanted to make an ultra high quality sativa strain to work to more in the future. Walter White has been a firm favourite in the Mephisto house for a long time, it also has a distinct aroma and flavour profile that shared similarities with amnesia so we felt they would be a match made in heaven and we weren't wrong! Fast forward 2 years and we are finally ready to drop our Amnesia/Walter project: Fugue State. An easter egg for the Breaking Bad fans out there for when Walter 'had amnesia'. We're really stoked with the growth pattern and standout quality of Fugue State, our Walter White has added another level of resin to an already frost-ridden specimen! For the sativa heads that want to get up to some day time mischief, this strain is the ticket. But also, buyer beware, don't over indulge as she will put you on your ass. Enjoy! Strain behavior and structure: Fugue State is a sativa dominant strain that grows with very nice vigour. She forms a branchy open structure quickly, and as she works through her cycle her leaves become more slender and fine with sharp serrations on the leaves. Despite the sativa traits she's fast flowering and matures quickly with bulk to boot, akin to something like C99. We're really happy how she's transferred into an autoflowering variety, she will veg/pre-flower and stretch to around day 35-40 from sprout but then transitions hard into flower. The flowers she produces are size-able, with a compact density and adorned with white frost. Basically she's a lovely automatic spectacle to grow and witness developing on a daily basis. She grows with a sativa structure and medium sized inter-nodal gaps, devoid of much foliage her sparse leaves allow light to penetrate down and fill out lower flowers. Fugue state is an adaptable plant that lends well to different training methods, however there's not always the need to go to crazy, and some light pruning of lower branches and lower fluff in combination with a few sessions of leaf tucking really spreads her bud mass across her full structure very nicely indeed. Generally we've seen good mould and pest resistance, however if she grows a really dominant thick main cola, please take steps to ensure really good airflow and lower humidity as mould could be an issue in a really thick and dense main cola. Fugue State progresses very quickly over the last few weeks, she will transition from a lot of white pistils on the flowers where you might be wondering how much longer she will go, to done! Quickly. Fugue State *may* also need support in these later stages. Overall Fugue state is a really nice variety, not difficult to grow, productive, high class flowers that satisfy the full spectrum of growers, she gives commercial yields of a connoisseur headstash, just like the amnesia we started with. Full Stock List Reserva – Double Grape, ManBearAlienPig, Toofless Alien Medical – Canna-Cheese 1:1 Originals – Hubbabubbasmelloscope, Sour Crack, Toof Decay Artisnals – 3 Bears OG, 4 Assed Monkey (Limited!!), Crème De La Chem, Northern Cheese Haze, Skywalker, Sour Stomper Merch – New Sticker Pack in Stock!! Mephisto Swag Pack – We chose 11 of our favorite Mephisto swag stickers and combined them in a single pack for purchase.
Last week we presented the first QDAO DeFi news digest – it’s time for the second one! Jump into this exciting flow of DeFi market news and QDAO DeFi updates. Find out more below.
Cryptocurrencies and DeFi coins market analysis
The whole crypto market is coloured green. Bitcoin is preparing for another rush upwards after climbing above the $12,000 mark. No surprise, altcoins are ready to follow the king. In the meantime, the Ethereum network can’t handle the pressure and the transactional fees show record figures. The reason is simple – DeFi’s popularity. DeFi is the fastest developing market in the crypto industry. The total value locked in DeFi doubled in the last 30 days, reaching a tremendous $6.24 billion. But the pressure on Ethereum blockchain exerted by DeFi services is slowing down the global growth of the market. The main DeFi cryptocurrencies that closed last week with loses were:
However, the DeFi market is only just at the beginning of its evolution and we will see solid growth in the near future.
DeFi continues to be in the spotlight! News portals are producing more and more articles on this topic. Here is the most interesting news of the past few weeks:
DeFi is conquering the state level. Thailand’s central bank is thinking of using DeFi to implement its national digital currency, the digital Baht.
Gas fee problem. Ethereum fees are showing ATH, thus threatening the growth of the DeFi sector. The main coins are already slowing down a bit but if the situation continues, DeFi capitalization may drop to below $6 billion.
CZ considers DeFi as the future. Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) sees the potential of DeFi services and how they can co-exist with traditional exchanges like Binance.
QDAO DeFi updates
We are constantly improving QDAO DeFi services. We need to act sharp to attract more attention during the hype. Our main update for the last two weeks was adding 9 new coins to the QDAO DeFi program in Noah Custody Wallet. Now all participants can use 11 cryptocurrencies with 4 types of terms at different interest rates. Learn more here.
The latest stats from QDAO DeFi PULSE
Number of active users — 7316 Total amount of users’ funds: 2670235.9021 XRP 879.62027663 ETH 200.64936381 BTC 13686064.245 ADA …and more. Current users’ interest balance: 61881.20361 XRP 14.4838151 ETH 2.960816229 BTC 106351.14169 ADA …and more. Number of withdrawals made: 4840 We will add new features in the coming future. Want to be the first to hear QDAO DeFi news and updates? Visit our website and stay in touch with us on social media: Twitter, Facebook, Telegram and LINE (for the Japanese-speaking community).
BTC shock repair market, retail investors into the main chasing empty, early in the morning to form an hour level double bottom
On September 12, the CFTC released its latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly (September 2-September 8), a sharp plunge in the statistical cycle, a temporary stabilization after a sharp fall of more than $2000, but not a rapid rebound to recover lost ground. Instead, it remained relatively low after a sharp drop in the early part of the statistical cycle, so the weekly report showed responses to various accounts after the market slump. Especially for those accounts with a large number of single code in the last statistical cycle, the performance of the current transfer is more worthy of attention. Bitcoin fell to 10212 in the early hours of the morning, forming an hourly double bottom and breaking through the pressure level of 10400. Other currencies will follow Bitcoin. Make reasonable mentality and position adjustment according to disk change at any time, prepare for all possible. Pay attention to the key pressure level of 10350 and the directional position of 10200 key support.
Bitcoin is ardently attempting to hold above $10,000, as this crucial psychological support level has been broken and reclaimed on multiple occasions throughout the past several hours. Earlier today, the cryptocurrency showed some significant signs of weakness as it pushed below this level, with bears sending it as low as $9,900 before it saw a sharp rebound that led it all the way up to $10,100. It has been facing some resistance here, however, with bulls struggling to garner any clear upwards momentum as heightened selling pressure persists. BTC: The current price is around US$10,370, and the 24-hour purchase capital is US$26.9 million. Technically, BTC tried to test its support level again last night, but it was quickly recovered. The support level above $9,750 was confirmed again. With a short-term three-bottom mentality, the rebound is expected to continue. ETH: Yesterday to today, it continues to fluctuate at the bottom. The current price is around 350 US dollars, and the 24-hour buying funds reached 594 million US dollars. Technically, ETH once again hit the bottom with a single needle, but the support position above 320 USD is strong, and the willingness of long funds to take over is strong. The 4-hour trend has a double bottom. It is expected to continue to rise in the day. It is expected to reach near 380 USD in the short term, but it is only suitable for short-term operations. . Bitcoin enthusiasts investment quotes: The most important point of empathy is that you really understand what you invest in? To really understand, you must first get rid of your own inherent thinking, and then stand in the thinking of the market value side management team to think about the problem. You will find that many problems cannot be figured out, but in fact, it is right to figure out, because inherent thinking is difficult to change. Add LINE discussion trend
Perfect storm leads to big sell-off for Bitcoin and DeFi: Weekly recap
A sharp correction in equities markets led Bitcoin price and DeFi tokens to sell-off sharply but have investors turned bearish? Digital asset markets were on a parabolic surge until investor confidence took a major hit to close out the week with a bearish tilt due to a perfect storm of negativity. Before reading the rundown, catch up on the most-read stories centered around the price of Bitcoin, the macroeconomic picture and the DeFi phenomenon gaining traction. Bitcoin price, stocks and gold plunge in tandem — What’s next? Don’t panic? ‘Smart money’ whales are waiting to buy Bitcoin at $8,800 Yearn.finance’s $140M yETH vault proves investors are ravenous for DeFi Bitcoin mirrors gains of past halvings, suggesting $41K price in 2020 Ethereum gas fees reach $500K as ETH price hits a 2020-high at $486 A significant drop in equities markets was led by blue-chip stocks that had been at all-time highs. As this occurred, many tokens tied to DeFi platforms corrected sharply, most notably, SushiSwap (SUSHI) which lost nearly 40 percent of its value. The correction in traditional markets appears to have influenced Bitcoin’s (BTC) more than 10 percent drop before a small bounce back to the $10.3-$10.4K range. More isn’t always merrier Technology stocks that led US equities to record highs this summer reversed sharply this week, sending the Nasdaq Composite index tumbling almost five percent in its biggest fall since June. Apple’s shares lost eight percent — wiping more than $150 billion from the iPhone maker’s value — while Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft all fell more than four percent. As a result, the VIX index jumped above the 30-point mark for the first time since mid-July, and the equivalent volatility index for the Nasdaq shot up to more than 40 points — nearly double its mid-August low. Historically, the VIX has only surged into the 30s a handful of times in the past and almost always leads to a significant retracement. It is a reminder that crowded trades bring a lot of volatility when someone begins to unwind their positions. Digital asset traders are more than aware of such dynamics and while the bulls may be feeling particularly salty about the reversal of fortunes, the pull-back offers an opportunity to rebuild. The futures curve also flattened aggressively as leverage buyers were the first ones to look for cover, and there are plenty of opportunities in the options market to take advantage of market mispricing. Are DeFi tokens the new pink sheets? Ethereum transactions soared to multiple new all-time highs for the second time in three weeks and Uniswap V2: Router 2 is now the lead contributor to gas usage, according to Etherscan. The decentralized exchange is followed by Tether (USDT); and then the latest DeFi sweetheart that is SushiSwap: MasterChef LP Staking Pool. And so, Tether has finally been dethroned from its top spot as the main contributor of gas usage. The fact that it was toppled by none other than a DeFi platform speaks a lot for the recent growth of the industry and, as it stands, over $9.34 billion is locked across various platforms. Currently, Aave, Maker and Uniswap constitute about $1.5 billion TVL each. On the one hand, DeFi is a high risk, high reward market, but so is trading small-cap (pink sheet) stocks. Both clearly have a market, and always will among those with an appetite for risk. Is relief from high gas fees on the way? The ongoing focus on DeFi and the recent hyperactivity on Ethereum has resulted in sky-high congestion and gas fees. This led Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin to point out several solutions through rollups and sharding. ZK-Rollups are a zero-knowledge proof technique that helps rollup or batch many transactions into a single transaction, and therefore, helps reduce congestion on the Ethereum blockchain. Less congestion means lower fees. Optimistic and ZK roll ups can increase capacity from ~15 tx/sec to ~3000 tx/sec by doing most of the transaction processing on layer 2. Sharding, on the other hand, increases the capacity of the base layer by ~100x. This could lead to a 100x decrease in fees, though realistically in the long term it would not decrease quite as much because the demand for Ethereum is also likely to increase. The only solution to high transaction fees is scaling and Tether, Gitcoin and other apps are doing the right thing by migrating to ZK rollups. A positive development is that Tether is now planning to add support for another Layer-2 scaling solution (ZK-Rollups).
Bitcoin Price Tackles $12,000 After Breaking Through a Key Resistance Zone
The sharp upside move came after a relatively quite weekly close as altcoins like Chainlink (LINK) and Band Protocol (BAND) had been basking in the spotlight with daily double digit-gains. As mentioned earlier by Cointelegraph contributor Rakesh Upadhyay, Bitcoin price had been consolidating into a pennant on the daily timeframe, thus a breakout to $12K was expected by many traders. Upadhyay said:
“The BTC/USD pair has formed a pennant, which usually acts as a continuation pattern. A breakout and close (UTC time) above the pennant will be the first sign that bulls have gained the upper hand. The target objective of such a breakout is $14,756. However, as the overhead resistance of $12,304.37 is close by, traders can wait for the price to sustain above this level before turning positive.”
Raoul Pal, the former hedge fund manager who founded Real Vision, thinks the fallout from the coronavirus will have immense, far-reaching impacts on the global economy.
The duration and severity of the pandemic is something that Pal thinks hasn't yet been accounted for properly.
Pal thinks a further 20% decline in stocks is on the horizon.
For context, in October, Pal called the Federal Reserve cutting rates to zero and the US having negative rates. In late February, Pal said to buy bonds and that the impacts from the coronavirus would be "meaningful and real."
"The whole world's f---ed." That's what Raoul Pal, the former hedge-fund manager who founded Real Vision, said on the "Lindzanity" podcast when he initially learned the coronavirus was uncontrolled and spreading rapidly. "The moment the spread hit Iran ... and then Italy — that all happened over the span of three or four days — I was like: 'time to panic before everybody else,'" he said. "It's human behavior function. If the Chinese closed every single border and every city, everybody's going to do it." To bring you up to speed, Pal retired at 36 after quitting jobs at Goldman Sachs and GLG Partners. He lives comfortably on a 140-person island in the Cayman Islands and spends his days writing market research, which comes with a hefty price tag of $40,000 per year. "I said: 'Listen, this is the biggest economic event of all of our lifetimes — and it's coming'" he added. "And that was, in retrospect, the greatest call I've ever had." But this isn't the first time Pal's nailed a prescient call. Back in October, he said the Federal Reserve needed to cut interest rates to zero and warned of negative interest rates in the US, both of which have materialized. What's more, as the market was topping out in late February, Pal expressed his affinity for owning bonds — a trade that would've immensely rewarded investors who took his advice. He also warned that the implications from the coronavirus would be "meaningful and real." That was before things really started to fall apart. Today, Pal thinks the coronavirus will cause "the largest insolvency event in all history." And given his track record as of late, that's not reassuring. "I think the balance of probabilities are that this is a much longer event — in terms of economic impacts — than anybody is pricing in," he said. "I think it's a huge societal change that's coming from all of this." To Pal, the duration of the fallout stemming from the coronavirus is the key factor here — one that he thinks investors aren't paying enough attention to. In his mind, those who are a projecting sharp V-shaped recovery in the third and forth quarter are incorrect in their assumptions. "Isolation is going to be a real event for a significant period of time," he said. "You've got a world that's going to be much more closed, and that's leading to complications in supply chains." He added: "It makes people become more local." Pal's prognostication echos that of billionaire "bond king" Jeffrey Gundlach. In a DoubleLine webcast earlier this week, Gundlach said "we're going to be getting much more, less-connected to globalization" and "we're going to be bringing manufacturing back and thinking about things in very different ways." But the changes that Pal and Gundlach highlight don't happen overnight, which is why Pal thinks the fallout could worsen. Every day that the pandemic drags on is one less day without production and consumption. Then that, in turn, heightens bankruptcy risk. With all of that under consideration, here's how Pal is positioning his portfolio to weather a deeper equity rout. Ideally, he'd like to get to the allocation below.
25% trading opportunities
"So I'm now in the point of thinking we've got another 20% downside or so to come before we get the 3-, 4-month bounce of hope," he said. "For the average guy, this is a very, very, very difficult world we're going to go into — and I can't sugarcoat it because there is no nice answer."
Bitcoin Price Tackles $12,000 After Breaking Through a Key Resistance Zone
The sharp upside move came after a relatively quite weekly close as altcoins like Chainlink (LINK) and Band Protocol (BAND) had been basking in the spotlight with daily double digit-gains. As mentioned earlier by Cointelegraph contributor Rakesh Upadhyay, Bitcoin price had been consolidating into a pennant on the daily timeframe, thus a breakout to $12K was expected by many traders. Upadhyay said:
“The BTC/USD pair has formed a pennant, which usually acts as a continuation pattern. A breakout and close (UTC time) above the pennant will be the first sign that bulls have gained the upper hand. The target objective of such a breakout is $14,756. However, as the overhead resistance of $12,304.37 is close by, traders can wait for the price to sustain above this level before turning positive.”
Some informative responses from Colin and Andy from the just-concluded Nano AMA at the Atomic Wallet Telegram group
The AMA ran today from 13:00 - 14:20 UTC, with Colin and Andy. I've copied over some of their responses that I found give me better insight into Nano. Their responses are in italics. Responses to different questions are separated by double spaces. Colin's responses are listed first, followed by Andy's. Sorry I couldn't copy over the questions as well. I've added my comments in places. From Colin: PoW coins have done a good marketing that the energy expenditure makes your coins more secure but it’s really unnecessory. PoW coins need to continue expending work because if they stop, their security parameter erodes. Nano has no such problem, once an election for a transaction is complete, it’s confirmed. If it sits there it stays confirmed and it doesn’t need any extra effort. Wow, put that way, Bitcoin seems unsustainable in the long term when there is an alternative like Nano. Yes the circulating supply is forever like this. The reason it can’t change is because nano transactions can only send your current balance or less to someone else, this means new coins can never be injected in to the system. Interesting design reason new Nano can't be minted. Volatility is a focus with all cryptocurrencies and it comes from low volume, it’s not intrinsic to cryptocurrency itself. To cure low volume our focus is integrating it in to parts of the economy where it solves a problem, rather than just emulating credit cards etc. Not having fees in the network puts us in a very good position for buying beer, for example. Typically credit card providers will charge 2-5% for a purchase, maybe even more, and it tight margin businesses that make 2-5% profit anyway, this is huge. A lot of Reddit discussion on crypto adoption considers only user experience and overlooks benefits to merchants. Nano is purpose built to be the fastest and most decentralized currency around. Our transactions settle in less than 1 second and it’s all done on a network with no fees, and a tiny environmental footprint Decentralization is an essential focus for us, many other cryptocurrencies can get fast or low cost, but they can’t also maintain decentralization which I think we do very well. Well the sustainability comes from 2 main parts. We have a laser sharp focus on being the most efficient currency. This means our development stays focused and eventually the amount of things going in to the code base will trend downward; once we’ve achieved the goal we just have to make things more efficient. The second part of sustainability is our Open Representative Voting which is our replacement for PoW mining. We saw the energy expenditure as something that would come in conflict with any system that would attain high adoption so our goal was to get the same or better decentralization benefits and also have a low energy footprint. We think we achieved that goal as our representatives are all over the world under many different organizations. A healthy decentralized representative set is good for long term sustainability. And on the simplicity, nano is probably one of the easiest cryptocurrencies to use. There are no fees to calculate, the UX impact of entering a fee is greatly understated. How much should the fee be? Does my grandma know what network load is? What does it mean with respect to fee? Nano simply has accounts and balances, you send and it lands in their wallet in less than a second, nothing can be simpler. We’re not looking to expand in to defi right now. I have some reservations about it’s viability. One thing I’ve noticed in my many years of seeing technology evolution is to not try and change 2 things at once. We don’t want to simultaneously change the currency people use and also change how finances are done. First change the currency, then change the finances. I think Libra suffers from a market mis-assesment. Essentially what they’re claiming is be a multi-currency bank account for every facebook user. Getting users electronic bank accounts isn’t a technology problem, it’s a regulatory and logistics problem. Since Facebook is essentially being a bank for people, they’re going to be required to comply with KYC requirements. Sending/receiving isn’t going to be open as it is in cryptocurrency because of AML requirements. People are not going to have access to the system in remote areas because how do they deposit or more importantly withdraw local currency from their Libra accounts. I think privacy is a big concern with our transactions and credit card purchases and it’s only getting worse. Letting Facebook/Libra know all your purchase history I think is a huge mistake. I think it also doesn’t fundamentally solve the central banking problem where they can print more money and inflate the currency supply. I see this behavior as a fundamentally unethical thing that cryptocurrency solves and Libra is taking a huge step back on that. I don’t see anything compelling about it and I don’t see long term viability. I think disk usage is going to be a low concern long term. The goal with Nano is to be a widely used commercial grade currency so the representatives will be banks and other financial institutions, universities, and tech companies. Considering how much youtube, instagram, and other social media data is created each day, I don’t think the ledger size will be a long-term limiting factor. Looks like the role of hobbyists in running nodes will diminish with widening adoption. Nano’s value is being the fastest, most efficient currency around. Entreprenuers make use of natural market incentives / natural efficiencies to make money on a business. Cryptocurrency has distorted that term a bit with something more closely resembling subsidies. The transaction fees and block rewards are subsidizing the security parameter and processing prioritization. PoW chains need this subsidy because their security parameter costs a lot. Additionally we’ve seen miners work to limit the network’s throughput in order to rent-seek on the limited transaction space. Damn, talk about unaligned incentives between users and miners. The people we’re looking for are the entreprenuers that know how to make use of a faster, lower cost currency. Yes, having a fixed supply is an essential component of currency. If people can add more currency to the system, they’re taking value away from everyone else in that process. It’s unfair and unethical. 1 Nano actually can be divided down very small so there’s no risk of not having enough coins. In this response, Colin is addressing a question about Steem and other dPoS systems. One major difference with Nano consensus is: having more Nano does not get you more Nano, there are no rewards for holding Nano. Holding nano doesn’t give people voting privledges on network changes, or any other centralizing component associated with holding. Another big difference is voting in nano does not produce blocks, it chooses between conflicting blocks that a user publishes. If you don’t attempt to double-spend, your transactions cannot be voted against. From Andy: 1. The faucet did indeed seed Nano's amazing international communities, and the contributions from around the world to the project have been unbelievable over that last 2.5 years. Communities are still active, engaged and building 💪 2. The effects of Nano being added to the Atomic Wallet (and other multi-currency wallets) is two fold. It increases the accessibility and convenience of storing Nano alongside other coins and also helps to disperse voting weight across a wider spread of representatives - increasing decentralization! We certainly feel that Nano possesses far and away the best fundamentals, democratic approach to decentralization, and user experience. Being fully distributed and operating on a the mainnet since 2015 is also very important, and puts Nano way ahead of many other projects making bold claims about future potential. Nano is here today, and works as one would expect the digital money would! Privacy is an attractive proposition to users of digital money for obvious reasons, it can be very important. Our position towards privacy is more conservative as we have seen many more hurdles to mainstream adoption being put in front of privacy-based projects. With that being said, there are eyes towards the technical implications of introducing privacy, but it is extremely difficult to do this without incurring slowdowns to settlement times. Throughout 2019 we were able to make significant progress in helping some of the more well-established cryptocurrency services such as exchanges, fiat gateways, payment platforms, and wallets- like Atomic 😄, to understand and integrate Nano. This proliferation of Nano across the space has ensured that it is increasingly more convenient for users and merchants to access and begin using Nano for payments.
Yield Farming in DeFi — the Evolution outcome of the Crypto Industry
Yield Farming in DeFi — the Evolution outcome of the Crypto Industry Yield Farming (income farming) is one of the key trends actively developing in DeFi. Thanks to this earnings strategy, the Compound project has recently taken off, ranking first in terms of the number of user funds blocked in the protocol. The Yield Farming investment strategy, or income pharming, is to generate income from the placement of cryptocurrencies on various DeFi-platforms for crypto-lending. Before Yield Farming, the main trend in DeFi was conventional cryptocurrency deposits, bringing in 4–10% returns. However, Yield Farming can generate up to 100% annualized income.
Yield Farming is the main driver of the DeFi sector
The number of cryptocurrencies locked in DeFi (Total Value Locked — TVL) is now $2.29 billion. At the same time, over the past month, the capitalization of funds in DeFi has more than doubled, largely due to the popularity of income pharming. At the same time, the top five DeFi protocols attracted $2.1 billion in crypto assets, or 91.7% of the total TVL volume. • Compound — $690.8 million • MakerDAO — $644.7 million • Synthetix — $396 million • Aave — $192.4 million • Balancer — $178.2 million And the total number of users of these projects was about 230,000. The sharp rise in interest in Yield Farming is associated with one of the new protocols on the market — Compound. Users of this platform can provide loans or take out loans in nine different cryptocurrencies, for which they receive COMP project tokens. With these tokens, Compund users can make decisions about its future development. In other words, conditional “shares” of the Compound project are distributed to those who provide liquidity to the platform, as well as to those who take loans on it. This largely corresponds to the concept of SAFG (“a simple agreement on the possibility of obtaining the right to control in the future”) as a logical development of other principles of distribution of tokens — SAFE and SAFT.
COMP for BAT
Issued daily at 2880 COMP, which is equivalent to $518,688 at a token price of $180.1. Half goes to liquidity providers, half to borrowers. At the same time, distribution is carried out to each of nine markets (BAT, ETH, USDC, USDT, Dai, REP, 0x and Sai) — to everyone who borrows or takes loans from Compound, in proportion to the interest rate, as well as to their payments for interest or income. The higher the rates for a loan or loan, the more COMP tokens are paid. At the same time, Compound is constantly updating its token distribution rules. So, according to the latest update from July 2, COMP payments begin to be made based not on interest rates, but on the dollar value of the funds in the transaction. This should eventually lead to more use of stablecoins. For them, borrowing rates can be less than 1%, which is ten times less than for the most volatile asset in DeFi — the BAT token. It is worth noting that until recently, Compound users received the maximum number of COMP tokens for transactions with BAT. As a result, for the period from June 19 to July 2, the volume of transactions with this asset reached $931 million, which exceeded the total turnover of Ethereum and DAI for the same period. However, another change in the rules sharply increased the volumes of DAI and USDC.
Yield Farming: Borrowing Is Better Than Lending
The changes did not affect the main advantage of Compound — the COMP tokens received by users still cover the cost of borrowing in cryptocurrencies. In other words, Compound users find it more profitable to borrow than borrow (as noted, for example, with the Tether stablecoin). Payments of COMP tokens to borrowers look like a cryptocurrency cashback for participation in the platform — this can be viewed as if, for example, American Express bank shared a small share in the share capital with users for each transaction. This Compound policy has led to a sharp increase in loans, as well as increased income for those providing liquidity, as they also receive COMP tokens for participating in the platform. Moreover, this cashback is a plus to the interest earned on borrowed cryptocurrencies. Moreover, since borrowers receive payments on loans, liquidity providers can use their own assets to borrow more funds. As a result, their income increases and they again provide liquidity to Compound.
Not only Compound
Compound was not the only one that played an important role in popularizing Yield Farming. So, Aave makes it possible to borrow cryptocurrencies at a fixed rate, and then place them in order to generate income. Aave’s fixed rate is usually higher than Compound’s variable, which means Aave gives more income to those who provide crypto loans. There are also liquidity pools, such as Uniswap, which offer large returns (sometimes at 100% annualized rate), but with higher risks. While the price of СOMP shows a clear downward trend (research of the Delta Exchange platform claims that this token is five times overvalued), Compound is overgrown with competitors. So, on June 22, the COMP token cost $327.82 (on the day of listing on Coinbase Pro, June 23, at the moment the cost even rose to $427), and on July 12 it was already $180.1. The fall of СOMP is noticeable, but it is worth noting that at the beginning of its emission the token cost only $16. Moreover, about 80% of COMP tokens are distributed among the top 10 addresses in Compound, and the volume of tokens in free circulation is $686 million, which corresponds to a free-float indicator of 38%. It is not high, and this will contribute to the strong volatility of COMP. Against the background of a decrease in the cost of COMP, the Balancer platform, which provides crypto lending services from a pool of various ERC20 tokens, began distributing 145,000 native BAL tokens to liquidity providers every week. These tokens, like COMP, provide the right to participate in the management of the platform. Of the maximum possible issue of BAL 100 million, 65% will go towards payments.
Risks of Yield Farming
Despite the popularity of Yield Farming among DeFi players, this trend is not without its pitfalls. For example, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin continues to criticize DeFi, stating that “interest rates that are significantly higher than you can get when working in the field of traditional finance are either an opportunity for temporary arbitrage or are obtained at the expense of not publicly disclosed risks.” Indeed, when using Yield Farming, the following risks should be borne in mind: • Cryptocurrencies can be stolen from the platform they are hosted on. • The participant may borrow too much funds in relation to the crypto deposit placed by him (trading with high leverage), as a result of which the collateral may be lost. • The collapse of cryptocurrency rates. This factor can be realized if, for example, it turns out that some stablecoins in reality do not have the declared 1:1 collateral. • The Compound platform will no longer reward borrowers and lenders with COMP tokens. According to the statements of the project team, the program will operate over the next four years — during this time 42% of the total token emission will be distributed. However, the site has the right to change the rules. • Systemic risk, within which even small changes in the core principles of Yield Farming can provoke a very strong transformation of this strategy and affect its popularity. • Scam tokens. Due to the simple asset listing system on the Uniswap site, assets such as a copy of the Balancer token, fake coins of the Curve Finance project, the DYDX token, which can be confused with dYdX, and the Uniswap Community Token, which is not related to the platform itself, appeared on it. As a result, the site issued a warning about an increase in the number of fake ERC20 tokens.
Yield Farming gives hope for the growth of cryptocurrency quotes
But how does Yield Farming affect the crypto market in general? Over the last week of June and the first ten days of July, an additional 2,430 bitcoins were added to Compound, in addition to the 170 already available at that time. The Balancer platform during the same time saw an influx of bitcoins from 126 to 1787. In total, for the implementation of Yield Farming, DeFi protocols are now more than 12,000 BTC. Potentially, an increase in the inflow of bitcoins into this sector of the cryptocurrency market can play a positive role in relation to the dynamics of the growth of quotations of the first cryptocurrency. After all, the growing popularity of Yield Farming supports interest in BTC, which is especially important given that in July, the turnover of this cryptocurrency trade fell by 31% compared to June. Since most of the DeFi projects are based on the Ethereum blockchain and use the assets of this ecosystem, ether can potentially get an incentive for strong growth. Although the example of XRP and the development of innovations from Ripple shows that such market success is not guaranteed. It is also symbolic that the total capitalization of ERC20 tokens has reached $33 billion, exceeding the total capitalization of ether ($26.6 billion). Messari analyst Ryan Watkins, commenting on this data, said that ether has shown a very modest growth over the past two months, only 20%. The continued growth in interest in stablecoins and the increase in trading volume with them is also driven by their popularity at Yield Farming. Along with this, stablecoins, which have long become a “bridge” between the world of classical finance and the cryptosphere, also contribute to the rapid emergence of various CBDCs on the market.
Yield Farming meets institutional investors
Yield Farming has become a natural stage in the evolution of the cryptocurrency ecosystem. However, its further destiny, like all DeFi areas, is directly related to ensuring reliable cybersecurity. This is also important from the point of view of investors who invest in infrastructure: it’s a shame, for example, that the dForce platform faced the theft of $24 million in assets, having received $1.5 million in funding from investors a few days earlier. In this connection, venture funds from Silicon Valley are being invested in the development of infrastructure for Yield Farming. So, ParaFi is investing $4.5 million in Aave, supporting a platform that offers instant cryptocurrency loans without collateral. These are high-risk transactions for the borrower, but it is important that Aave develops further. So, it has service integration with Uniswap. Moreover, Aave became the first DeFi protocol to work with the Tether stablecoin. Plus, the platform now offers a new product — credit delegation, when a depositor can lend their assets to a specific member of the platform in a collateral-free scheme. Both parties enter into a loan agreement, which, thanks to the integration of Aave with OpenLaw, allows such a contract to be securely stored on the blockchain. In fact, this is a real exit for DeFi with Yield Farming to the classic financial market, to work with institutional investors as well. There is also a trend towards the integration of various platforms into DeFi, which thereby help each other grow. Thus, internal tokens and “synthetic” tokens (cTokens) Compound began to be used in Uniswap. And three projects at once — Synthetix, Curve and Ren — launched a joint pool providing liquidity in the form of tokenized bitcoins. Also in a short period of time, insurance products targeted at Yield Farming members, such as Nexus Mutual, began to appear on the market. Now the Nexus Mutual team has insured assets in the amount of $8.5 million. Curve Finance is most interested in this opportunity ($1.6 million of assets are insured). Cryptocurrencies for an average of $700,000 are also insured on the Balancer, Compound, Aave and 1inch.exchange platforms. Yield Farming, along with decentralized insurance products, confirms the opinion of analyst Chris Burniske, who emphasized that DeFi recreates all the elements that are found in classic finance, but on a new, innovative basis. So it cannot be said that Yield Farming is a short-term trend. This segment of the cryptosphere will continue to evolve despite the decline in net margin in it, as seen in the example of Compound. Subscribe to our Telegram channel
Crypto bulls enjoyed a favourable week with most assets achieving double-digit gains before the Bitcoin markets suffered a flash crash on Sunday. The Bitcoin price briefly crossed US$12,000 before a sharp drop pushed it back to US$11,000 level reports Aditya Das. https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/crypto-news
Murmurs of the Sea | Monthly Portfolio Update - March 2020
Only the sea, murmurous behind the dingy checkerboard of houses, told of the unrest, the precariousness, of all things in this world. -Albert Camus, The Plague This is my fortieth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $662 776 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $39 044 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $74 099 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $109 500 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $150 095 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $29 852 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $197 149 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 630 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 855 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $6 156 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $119 254 Secured physical gold – $19 211 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $13 106 Bitcoin – $115 330 Raiz* app (Aggressive portfolio) – $15 094 Spaceship Voyager* app (Index portfolio) – $2 303 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 492 Total portfolio value: $1 566 946 (-$236 479 or -13.1%) Asset allocation Australian shares – 40.6% (4.4% under) Global shares – 22.3% Emerging markets shares – 2.3% International small companies – 3.0% Total international shares – 27.6% (2.4% under) Total shares – 68.3% (6.7% under) Total property securities – 0.2% (0.2% over) Australian bonds – 4.8% International bonds – 10.4% Total bonds – 15.2% (0.2% over) Gold – 8.8% Bitcoin – 7.4% Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. Comments This month saw an extremely rapid collapse in market prices for a broad range of assets across the world, driven by the acceleration of the Coronavirus pandemic. Broad and simultaneous market falls have resulted in the single largest monthly fall in portfolio value to date of around $236 000. This represents a fall of 13 per cent across the month, and an overall reduction of more the 16 per cent since the portfolio peak of January. [Chart] The monthly fall is over three times more severe than any other fall experienced to date on the journey. Sharpest losses have occurred in Australian equities, however, international shares and bonds have also fallen. A substantial fall in the Australia dollar has provided some buffer to international equity losses - limiting these to around 8 per cent. Bitcoin has also fallen by 23 per cent. In short, in the period of acute market adjustment - as often occurs - the benefits of diversification have been temporarily muted. [Chart] The last monthly update reported results of some initial simplified modelling on the impact of a hypothetical large fall in equity markets on the portfolio. Currently, the actual asset price falls look to register in between the normal 'bear market', and the more extreme 'Global Financial Crisis Mark II' scenarios modelled. Absent, at least for the immediate phase, is a significant diversification offset - outside of a small (4 per cent) increase in the value of gold. The continued sharp equity market losses have left the portfolio below its target Australian equity weighting, so contributions this month have been made to Vanguard's Australian shares ETF (VAS). This coming month will see quarterly distributions paid for the A200, VGS and VAS exchange traded funds - totalling around $2700 - meaning a further small opportunity to reinvest following sizeable market falls. Reviewing the evidence on the history of stock market falls Vladimir Lenin once remarked that there are decades where nothing happen, and then there are weeks in which decades happen. This month has been four such weeks in a row, from initial market responses to the coronavirus pandemic, to unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy responses aimed at lessening the impact. Given this, it would be foolish to rule out the potential for other extreme steps that governments have undertaken on multiple occasions before. These could include underwriting of banks and other debt liabilities, effective nationalisation or rescues of critical industries or providers, or even temporary closure of some financial or equity markets. There is a strong appeal for comforting narratives in this highly fluid investment environment, including concepts such as buying while distress selling appears to be occurring, or delaying investing until issues become 'more clear'. Nobody can guarantee that investments made now will not be made into cruel short-lived bear market rallies, and no formulas exist that will safely and certainly minimise either further losses, or opportunities forgone. Much financial independence focused advice in the early stages of recent market falls focused on investment commonplaces, with a strong flavour of enthusiasm at the potential for 'buying the dip'. Yet such commonly repeated truths turn out to be imperfect and conditional in practice. One of the most influential studies of a large sample of historical market falls turns out to provide mixed evidence that buying following a fall reliably pays off. This study (pdf) examines 101 stock market declines across four centuries of data, and finds that:
Large falls can lead to strong rebounds - After large falls of up to 50 per cent, the probability of a large rebound is higher.
Future returns after large market falls are generally positive - Returns following such a severe crash are systematically higher than otherwise.
Smaller market falls, however, may accurately signal poor future returns - Smaller declines (10-20 per cent) are more likely to be followed by further declines, although the strength of the relationship is weaker and less consistent.
Even these findings should be viewed as simply indicative. Each crisis and economic phase has its unique character, usually only discernible in retrospect. History, in these cases, should inform around the potential outlines of events that can be considered possible. As the saying goes, risk is what remains after you believe you have thought of everything. Position fixing - alternative perspectives of progress In challenging times it can help to keep a steady view of progress from a range of perspectives. Extreme market volatility and large falls can be disquieting for both recent investors and those closer to the end of the journey. One perspective on what has occurred is that the portfolio has effectively been pushed backwards in time. That is, the portfolio now sits at levels it last occupied in April 2019. Even this perspective has some benefit, highlighting that by this metric all that has been lost is the strong forward progress made in a relatively short time. Yet each perspective can hide and distort key underlying truths. As an example, while the overall portfolio is currently valued at around the same dollar value as a year ago, it is not the same portfolio. Through new purchases and reinvestments in this period, many more actual securities (mostly units in ETFs) have been purchased. The chart below sets out the growth in total units held from January 2019 to this month, across the three major exchange trade funds holdings in the portfolio. [Chart] From this it can be seen that the number of securities held - effectively, individual claims on the future earnings of the firms in these indexes - has more than doubled over the past fifteen months. Through this perspective, the accumulation of valuable assets shows a far more constant path. Though this can help illuminate progress, as a measure it also has limitations. The realities of falls in market values cannot be elided by such devices, and some proportion of those market falls represent initial reassessments of the likely course of future earnings, and therefore the fundamental value of each of those ETF units. With significant uncertainty over the course of global lock-downs, trade and growth, the basis of these reassessments may provide accurate, or not. For anyone to discount all of these reassessments as wholly the temporary result of irrational panic is to show a remarkable confidence in one's own analytical capacities. Similarly, it would be equally wrong to extrapolate from market falls to a permanent constraining of the impulse of humanity to innovate, adjust to changed conditions, seek out opportunities and serve others for profit. Lines of position - Trends in expenditure A further longer-term perspective regularly reviewed is monthly expenses compared to average distributions. Monthly expenditure continues to be below average, and is likely to fall further next month as a natural result of a virus-induced reduction of shopping trips, events and outings. [Chart] As occurred last month, as a function some previous high distributions gradually falling outside of the data 'window' for the rolling three-year comparison of distributions and expenditure, a downward slope in distributions continues. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 71.9% 97.7% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 87.7% 119.2% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 70.2% 95.5% Summary This month has been one of the most surprising and volatile of the entire journey, with significant daily movements in portfolio value and historic market developments. There has been more to watch and observe than at any time in living memory. The dominant sensation has been that of travelling backwards through time, and revisiting a stage of the journey already passed. The progress of the last few months has actually been so rapid, that this backwards travel has felt less like a set back, but rather more like a temporary revisitation of days past. It is unclear how temporary a revisitation current conditions will enforce, or exactly how this will affect the rest of the journey. In early January I estimated that if equity market fell by 33 per cent through early 2020 with no offsetting gains in other portfolio elements, this could push out the achievement of the target to January 2023. Even so, experiencing these markets and with more volatility likely, I don't feel there is much value in seeking to rapidly recalculate the path from here, or immediately alter the targeted timeframe. Moving past the portfolio target from here in around a year looks almost impossibly challenging, but time exists to allow this fact to settle. Too many other, more important, human and historical events are still playing out. In such times, taking diverse perspectives on the same facts is important. This Next Life recently produced this interesting meditation on the future of FIRE during this phase of economic hardship. In addition, the Animal Spirits podcast also provided a thoughtful perspective on current market falls compared to 2008, as does this article by Early Retirement Now. Such analysis, and each passing day, highlights that the murmurs of the sea are louder than ever before, reminding us of the precariousness of all things. The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
Chainlink Price explodes - Reasons for the increase in LINK Price
Chainlink (LINK) is currently the most popular Defi project. The LINK rate has almost doubled in the past 3 weeks and hit a new all-time high of $ 8.48. As a result, the market capitalization rose briefly to over $ 2.5 billion and placed LINK in 8th place at CoinMarketCap. Of course, many are wondering how such a sharp rise in share prices could occur. https://preview.redd.it/8c4avufatsa51.png?width=337&format=png&auto=webp&s=5fa98b24c647e46df8fd75333bb62071e7499fbb Therefore, today we take a closer look at the possible reasons for the strong LINK Pump. If you are looking for cryptocurrency exchange with zero spot trading fees and Leverage trading engines that are ten times faster as compared to other cryptocurrency exchanges, VisitPhemex Exchange Basically, there are currently three main factors that have led to the LINK price increase. This includes the human psychology of pricing, high-profile partnerships, and a generally strong dynamic in the altcoin market. In addition, the increasing trading volume may have fueled the LINK price increase.
Then on July 6th, the time had come. The LINK price exceeded its previous record high of $ 5.31 and entered the pricing phase. This phase leads to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) in most markets. The way up is clear and has no natural resistance that could be identified by technical chart analysis. Exactly this fact leads to the fact that many speculators get in and fear to miss something, are almost ready to pay any price. Therefore the current Chainlink price increase could be irrational and encounter a hard correction. Within the last seven days, after the old all-time high was broken, the price exploded by over 40%, rising from $ 5.31 to $ 8.48. The LINK price is currently around USD 7.76. The trading volume of LINK also rose to a level that has not been observed since April 2020. At that point, the bitcoins price recovered from its strong sell-off to around $ 3,750. During this period, the demand for cryptocurrencies from retail investors rose by leaps and bounds. Some analysts believe that the LINK price could rise to USD 10 in the next few weeks. However, this statement should be treated with caution.
Partnerships stimulate business
Over the course of this year, Chainlink has entered into many high-profile partnerships with companies in the crypto sector. Chainlink partnered with Nexo on July 8th. Nexo is a crypto credit company with around 800,000 users. Chainlink is to make its Oracle solutions available to the company. Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov said: We are excited to bring Chainlink's secure and reliable Oracle solutions to Nexo's popular credit platform so users can independently check the interest rate and collateral rates they should receive on the blockchain. Over the past two months, Chainlink has partnered with blockchain projects and companies like Matic Network and Hedera Hashgraph. Chainlink was also mentioned in a Google blog post entitled Building hybrid blockchain/cloud applications with Ethereum and Google Cloud. LINK does not miss a partnership and therefore remains on everyone's lips. Feels like every major crypto company is already included as a partner. This attracts a lot of attention and thus increases interest in Chainlink.
Altcoin and Defi Momentum bring LINK up
The Altcoin market has shown its strong side in recent weeks. While the Bitcoin price was rather sideways, some altcoins have exploded. Chainlink is just the tip of the iceberg. Many other projects, especially from the Defi Space, were able to grow properly. DeFi is on everyone's lips and investors are looking for the next “insider tip” to quickly make a few 100%. The crypto market is becoming increasingly irrational and money is being thrown from one project to the next. It is strongly reminiscent of 2017 and 2018 at the ICO hype. The strong hype and greed can be felt and makes a timely correction more and more likely. Many are already talking about an Altcoin Season and are currently seeing LINK and many other Altcoin projects outperforming BTC. How long the situation lasts and whether further profits can be achieved with LINK is in the stars. But you should keep in mind that Chainlink has increased by over 450% in the last 3-4 months. This could lead to strong correction.
About KoinPro: The futures exchange you've been waiting for!
I had a discussion with one of my friends last year about bitcoin futures and exchanges where you can trade bitcoin futures. The topic was how difficult it is to trade bitcoin futures, as it involves complex order functions that beginners or even relatively experienced traders may find difficult to understand. Then we came to the conclusion that while trading bitcoin futures will allow us to better control our transactions and we can better control our risk appetite, it is better to wait for an exchange that can offer bitcoin futures trading while maintaining simplicity. and flexible enough to adapt to promising and, of course, advanced futures traders. Fortunately for us, we don't have to wait long, as KoinPro is here with its advanced features to redefine bitcoin futures trading.
About KoinPro: The futures exchange you've been waiting for.
KoinPro is a futures exchange created by a team of brilliant minds to determine how bitcoin futures are. Realizing that the complex functions of orders force people, especially beginners, to avoid trading bitcoin futures, KoinPro and its amazing team have developed a futures exchange that will make trading bitcoin futures as easy as possible for both beginners and experienced futures traders. So that anyone interested in trading bitcoin futures can do so without much difficulty, regardless of their experience, KoinPro offers two conditional and futures contracts for bitcoins - a double contract and a perpetual contract, both of which are different but equally important. If you want to join the platform now, first get acquainted with the official platform information:
How the problems of 2020 demonstrated to the world the “anti-fragility” of the crypto industry
How the problems of 2020 demonstrated to the world the “anti-fragility” of the crypto industry 2020 will be remembered for a long time: the threat of the third world war, the coronavirus pandemic, the global economic crisis and riots. And this is only six months. It is noteworthy, but while the global economy is in decline, the crypto industry, on the contrary, is accelerating the pace of development. Bitcoin has become for many a safe haven during the crisis, and the entire industry — the hope of salvation. Crypto companies have confirmed the growth in demand for goods and services related to digital assets, and it seems that the cryptosphere is fully consistent with the term “anti-fragility”, introduced by Nassim Taleb (author of the Black Swan economic bestseller) to identify systems that can benefit from unpredictable and stressful situations in the world. At least, the head of ScopeLift Ben DiFrancesco is sure of this.
What is anti-fragility
To begin with, we will deal with the concept of anti-fragility. This term was introduced by the famous professor, economist and trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who first voiced it in 2012 — in a book dedicated to the term “Anti-Fragility. How to capitalize on chaos.” Prior to this, Taleb gained special popularity and authority thanks to the introduction of the term “Black Swan”, which turned the perception of the economy over by many minds. By anti-fragility, a professor refers to the ability of a system to capitalize on negative trends. Anti-fragile systems become better after a “collision with chaos”, which can mean various world disasters, stressful situations, shocking events, information noises, failures, attacks, malfunctions, and so on. Many mistakenly confuse the concepts of anti-fragility and invulnerability, but there is a fundamental difference between them: • Invulnerability is the ability to withstand stressful situations. World cataclysm will not affect invulnerable systems, but will not make them better. • Anti-fragility is the ability to benefit from stressful situations. Anti-fragile systems are not just immune to disasters. In difficult conditions, they “harden” and become better. Ben DiFrancesco, the founder of ScopeLift (a crypto project software development consulting company) and concurrently the author of the Buil Blockchain Tech portal, considers the crypto market an ideal example of anti-fragility. Against the backdrop of all the negative shocks and tremendous changes in society that occurred in the first half of 2020, the crypto industry began to develop even faster. Blockchain technology more and more fits into our world as a solution to many problems, which were especially acute at the beginning of this year. Among them are the endless press of unsecured money, worsening international relations and increasing censorship on the Internet. Let’s go in an order.
Crypto-market versus money printing machine
The coronavirus pandemic caused an economic crisis around the planet. Both developed and developing countries faced massive unemployment, falling markets, and declining population returns. One way or another, the virus has affected everyone. The states rushed to solve these problems by the old and “tested” method — by printing new money. China and the USA were especially distinguished in this field — the former introduced an injection of about $250 billion in the stock market in February, and the second poured into the economy a record for the planet $ 2.3 trillion (2.5 times more than during the 2008 crisis). Alas, as a rule, when the state creates new money, the population pays for it. A sharp release to the market of unsecured money at the direction of management is fraught with serious consequences. The main one is the risk of mass inflation and the collapse of national currencies. Many complain about the Fed, which began in 2020 to print non-stop US dollars. The number of dollars in circulation rose sharply in 2020. Source. However, even such a sharp release to the market of new dollars is not the worst. It is much more dangerous that the Fed follows central banks of other countries, which also massively print unsecured national currencies in attempts to support the economy. If the dollar is somehow protected by the strong US position in the international arena, reduced credit and increased demand for American currency around the world, then most other countries cannot boast of such flexibility. States that print money with a heap of economic problems run the risk of hyperinflation and fall victim to their own decisions. The scale of the problem is aggravated by the fact that during the crisis in such countries, the demand for dollars among the population is growing, so the thread on which the sword of Damocles hangs hanging over national currencies is very thin today. Realizing the seriousness of the situation, many countries, such as Argentina, limit the ability of people and companies to buy dollars by introducing limits and various requirements. As a result, citizens begin to look for an alternative on the black market, buying dollars at a double rate, and also increasingly turn their attention to dollar stablecoins, which no one can forbid and for which you do not have to overpay. In the conditions of the crisis, the demand for stable coins began to grow at an accelerated pace, which is one of the brightest signs of the anti-fragility of the crypto industry, which has begun to squeeze benefits out of the negative situation in the world. The demand for traditional cryptocurrencies, especially for bitcoin, is also growing. One of the main reasons is the protection against inflation, provided by limited emissions, strictly following clearly established rules. No one at the direction of the government or anyone else can “print” more bitcoins than is laid down in the code of his protocol. Many people saw in the cryptocurrency market a real alternative to national currencies, which fell under significant risks in 2020.
Protection against ethnic issues
The coronacrisis brought with it many other global problems. In particular, it undermined the confidence of the population and governments of many states in the so-called “new world order)”. Unhappy with the way the world is coping with the pandemic, people intend to end globalization, so anti-globalist ideas began to spread en masse. There is every reason to believe that such movements will receive political support in many regions. Naturally, this carries enormous risks. But one cannot say that these moods arise without reason. Recent months have clearly demonstrated the extreme fragility of global supply chains. Nearly all countries in the world, including the United States, fought to import critical materials needed to fight the pandemic. Many people have a logical question in their heads: should countries with incompatible value systems be interconnected, especially if they have to suffer from this interconnectedness themselves, constantly giving way to richer states? On this basis, interethnic relations between peoples and leaderships of countries have worsened. If the trend continues in the coming years, then humanity will have no choice but to resort to massively using cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. If people cannot rely on reliable institutions as an intermediary for cross-border cooperation, the value of decentralized networks will significantly increase as an alternative that does not require trust. Each decision by world states aimed at weakening alliances with other countries, including reducing the flow of people or physical goods across borders, accelerates the development of the limitless digital economy of the Internet. Digital assets combined with smart contracts can play a key role in ensuring the transition of the world to new international relations. They are able to serve as a guarantor that does not require trust in the other side and even once again contact it.
Fighting Internet Censorship
In the past few years, social media giants such as Facebook and Twitter have gained tremendous opportunities to shape the flow of information in the modern world. With their help, information is distributed faster than any media, and the conclusions that people make on social networks often become decisive. This gives the giants in this field enormous power, which for many years has not been controlled (and by anyone) in any way. This issue has been ignored for a long time, but the situation has changed over the past two years. Previously, large corporations themselves determined censored content. Companies could mark posts as “unacceptable” if they, in their opinion, do not comply with any laws, call for aggression, contradict moral principles, and so on. However, at the end of May, the US President Donald Trump decided to significantly narrow the powers of the media giants and issued an appropriate order, citing user complaints for blocking allegedly non-violating messages. By the way, Trump’s own tweet, where he called particularly active protesters “thugs,” and threatened: “When looting begins, shootings begin,” was not complete. Perhaps an additional reason for the desire to narrow the powers of media giants was the fact that on the eve of the election, the president wanted to become “closer to the people”, appealing that everyone is free to express their opinion. Be that as it may, the invariable fact is that in this way he inserted the sticks into the wheels of Big Tech corporations. Moreover, based on Trump’s message, only governments should determine what can and cannot be blocked. In fact, any form of concentrated power in social networks can be dangerous for both private and legal entities. If media companies become almost monopolies, they can control the opinion of the population and block any content that is objectionable to them. But power over social media in the hands of states is no less dangerous because the government can do the same. After all, it is not known who and what decides to block tomorrow. Suddenly it will be cryptocontent, especially since the prerequisites have already arisen repeatedly, or the statements of people dissatisfied with social injustice. Social media executives want to be able to censor and edit the content that their users generate, while remaining protected from liability for it. The state wants to be able to apply its own standards of “neutrality” on these platforms, without specifying that such powers may end with even greater inequality and censorship. The war for censorship generates the interest of ordinary citizens in decentralized social networks and media platforms. More and more people are expressing a desire to get a decent alternative, where no one will be able to control their opinion and will not forbid them to express it. Due to the anti-fragility of the crypto industry, the chances of success of blockchain platforms are significantly increasing. Yes, they have not yet become mainstream, but interesting experiments, for example, with the Hive platform or decentralized twitter, show their great potential. With each censored post, they are one step closer to widespread use.
What will the anti-fragility of the crypto industry lead to?
Ben DiFrancesco is far from the first to notice the anti-fragility of the crypto industry. Talk about this has been going on for several years. Experts have repeatedly recorded various moments when the industry managed to squeeze the positive out of one or another negative situation in the world. Just now, against the background of the extremely difficult first half of 2020, this has become especially noticeable. Bitcoin has been “buried” already 380 times, but it, like the whole industry, continues to develop rapidly step by step, despite external world instability and internal cryptozymes. And if the assumptions about antifragility are true, the industry will become even stronger with each new world cataclysm. Humanity is tired of the problems caused by the current world system. People want freedom and openness. They get tired of concentrated power, unfair economic relations and censorship. The crypto industry offers an alternative and has every chance to solve these problems. To become, if not a panacea, then at least “the power of good,” as DiFrancesco claims. There are no guarantees, but there is faith and hope. And they are capable of anything. Subscribe to our Telegram channel
Hello fellas, my name is B1t1nat0r and this is my story. Back in 2017 I regularly bought Crypto on kraken. It was my go-to site for buying crypto. They seemed safe, competent and buying small amounts was not a hassle.
On March 19th I decided to buy some more BTC on Kraken and saw, that they now require full KYC with a lot of documents, even for small amounts of funding. I grabbed all existing pictures, that worked with every other KYC process, took one additional photo and tried to submit.My 3 year old Huawei Honor smartphone has a dual camera with a resolution of 12MP and produces pictures of about 90KB of size. Kraken immediately declined some of them for their small file size. The pictures looked sharp, so I doubled their resolution with a simple editing tool and submitted them.The first reply I received told me not to use a scanner(?) and to resubmit one of the pictures.
I took a new picture and resubmitted. The verification status inside the client remained pending for a month, telling me to wait for them to look at the pictures without the possibility to cancle and submit new pictures.
When I contacted customer support I was told to write another email with the pictures attached. That's when I noticed that I already got an email which told me that they received the same pictures again and that I should submit new ones on their platform, which was impossible, because it still was on pending and greyed out.
So I sent the email with the already taken pictures to customer support and I got a reply that they only require one more ID confirmation photo of me holding my id. Costumer sopport somehow resetted the process, so that I was able to submit on their platform again. I took that ID confirmation picture and submitted it online. After that my online verification was on pending again without any insight what was going on. I also received an email telling me that my verification was on pending.
One week passed by, so on April 25th I kindly asked about the verification progress.The email I got told my that my photo of the driver's license was too blurry, so I deleted my picture on Kraken and submitted a new one. You can already imagine what happened next. The button switched to the infinate pending state again.
Finally, on April 30th, I wrote another email. I was told the picture was too blurry and to resubmit again.
Now here we are. It's been nearly two months and I'm clueless. I can clearly detect every detail of my license. It worked everywhere else. How do you measure the blurriness of a photograph? Could I even have certainty if I bought a new camera? I would be able to understand if there were clear but strict requirements. What really pisses me off is their contradictory statements, letting me wait for weeks just to find out that your picture has been rejected from the very beginning. Do you have similar experiences? How did KYC go for you? Can you recommend different platforms with easier or no KYC? Bitcoin is now over 9000 and I'm pretty pissed. Thank you for letting me share.
An old friend of mine emailed this to me a while back with the subject line “Hide and Seek” and I’ve been hesitant to post it for reasons that should become obvious as you read it. That said, I feel that enough time has gone by for this to be safe so I’m going to post it here. The only edits I’ve made were swapping out names and formatting, otherwise it’s all exactly as he sent it. T, if you’re reading this then message me. I want to know if you’re alright, and if you are I know you’ll be looking for this story to show up. This is what the email said: Rijento, I’m writing this story because I feel like I need an outlet. I swear to god that you better actually check your email for once in your damn life! Please… As for if you actually are reading this, I want you to wait as long as your (admittedly) better judgment tells you to wait and then post this story online. I know it’s a bit vain, but I want people to know my story. Hell, it might be the last one I ever tell. Double hell, it might actually even help some poor soul out. I’m going to disappear after sending this, hopefully the good kind of disappear and not the death kind. I know nobody but you is going to believe this story but damn if typing this out didn’t make my sorry ass feel better. You were right about that man, I’m sorry for giving you shit for writing so much…
This is the attached file. “Hide and Seek”: Before I get in to the ‘hiding’ and ‘seeking’ I have a bit of a confession that needs to be made. I work as a transporter for a deep web black market site… I hope it doesn’t change your opinion of me too much, sorry for not telling you sooner. I’m the guy they call when they get an order for something they can’t send through the mail. Guns and live animals are two good examples. You’d be pretty hyped to know how many rich assholes just order lions and tigers from the dark web. For obvious reasons, I can’t go in to too much detail, I don’t want to make any dangerous enemies and even after this I still don’t want to lose my job. It’s a pretty sweet gig all things considered, all I have to do is pick up from the seller and deliver to the buyer. I can even choose what jobs I want to take, lets me cling to what little principles I still have. And I DO have principles. After a few years working for the site, my two rules were: no people and no crossing borders. Anyways, I got into a bit of a bind with the cryptocurrency crash that happened early this year. The site mostly pays in Bitcoin and, well, I decided to let my wallet sit and grow. By the time I realized what happened, my savings were destroyed. Nobody expected it to crash that hard… And it probably wouldn’t have been as much of a problem if I hadn’t also gotten used to living a life full of the finer things. I didn’t really ‘save’ all that much to begin with either. So when my savings finally ran dry and the market was still down, I decided to… Lower my standards a bit and take a riskier, higher paying job. Organ transport. I haven’t done it before… I hadn’t been that broke in a long time. Organ jobs pay well too, and I figured I still wasn’t strictly breaking my ‘no people’ rule if it was just their organs. So, I hopped on the site and browsed through the pitiful number of requests in my area till I found what I was looking for. A rich buyer who: had shady connections, was in need of some organs, and lacked either the time or patience to wait for them to come legally. As far as these sort of requests went, this was pretty much the norm from what I’d heard. So I accepted the job and got an email with some additional details about the order: the customer needed two kidneys (which was what I was to transport) and a liver (which they had made a separate request for). From what other people on the site have told me, what should have happened was the job would move to the ‘seeking seller’ section and I’d be on hold till someone… ‘_acquired_’ the kidneys. What actually happened probably should have tipped me off to use my monthly free withdraw… I got a notification two hours later that there was a seller. Rijento, I don’t know how much you know about medicine, but if you do know anything then you’re probably squirming in your own skin about right now. For those who may or may not be reading this that are not in the know, not only do the donor and receiver have to have compatible blood types but kidneys only last about a day outside of a warm body. Not exactly a product you can stockpile. I got another email, about the pickup this time, and began the internal debate between the bad feeling in my gut and my empty wallet… You can probably guess which one of them won out… Anyways, I planned my route; one hour to get to the seller and four hours to get from there to the buyer. I sent the site my plan and within minutes they approve of it and set up an actual meeting point. I sighed and grabbed my things, trying to swallow my nerves the entire hour it took me to reach the meeting point. I sat down on a bench in a city park and waited for what seemed like ages before I felt someone staring at me. It took me a solid minute to pick out who it was even though there were only a few people around. He was sitting with his back to me at a picnic table about ten yards away from me and whenever I looked away I could feel his eyes on me. When we eventually did make eye-contact he bounced excitedly in his seat and waved me over; my heart sank as he also slid a small case into my line of sight. I forced myself to smile, walked over, sat down, and hid my annoyance. Most of the buyers on the site were practically carbon copies of each other. Probably because you could only become a buyer if another buyer knew and endorsed you. The sellers, on the other hand, were all certifiably insane. None of the other transporters I’d chatted with had ever met with a ‘normal’ seller. Because of this, all of them quickly learned to keep conversation to a minimum and to not under any circumstances piss any of them off. I decided to follow in their example. The man sitting in front of me looked friendly enough, overly so if anything. He was scrawny, didn’t look like he would be strong enough to… well… kill someone and harvest their insides. He had a strange smile on his face, and even now I can’t get it out of my head. The kind of overly friendly, wide toothed smile that mothers warned their children to stay away from. It somehow managed to be both inviting and creepy at the same time. I smiled back and spoke up, “So you’re the seller then?” I asked, and the man nodded. He nodded and responded in a sickeningly sweet voice… He sounded like a child in a toy store, his voice strained with excitement and wonder as he droned on to his parents about what toys he wanted. “Oh I’m so glad you found me. For a minute there I thought I’d have to call ‘olly olly oxen free.’” He said with a pleased sigh, pushing the case to my side of the table. “You know… Over the years I’ve gotten quite good at playing hide and seek. So good, in fact, that I’ve never been found. Not. Even. Once. Do you want to know my secret?” the man asked, his voice still just as unsettlingly sweet as his smile. “Sure, what’s your secret?” I asked. I really, really didn’t want to know what the hell he was talking about; but if it kept him happy then… He clapped rapidly and bounced in place, “Oh I’m so glad that you’re a curious one. My secret is that the seekers never know that they’re playing.” “Makes sense…” I said, opening the case momentarily to verify. Two kidneys in pristine condition, doused with preserving fluid, wrapped in plastic. and packed in ice. “If the seeker doesn’t know they’re playing then how would they know to start looking?” I said, leaving out the fact that it would just be stalking at that point before swallowing hard when I thought about where these kidneys came from. “You’re a smart one…” he said with a smile as I sent a message confirming the pickup. All that was left was to wait for the transaction to process. “I was worried about this last one though… she came right up to me. This. Close.” he said, leaning in till our faces almost touched. I struggled to keep my composure, and managed to keep from jumping or pushing him away. “So what did you do?” I asked as he leaned back, my suspicions about these kidneys being all but confirmed. “Why, nothing of course…” He said, a slightly bewildered expression on his face. He looked as though I just asked him how to breathe. I glanced down at my phone to see if the transaction had been verified yet and he snapped his fingers like he remembered something. “Oh I must apologize!” he said, making me look up, “I forgot that you don’t play much… I simply held my breath, closed my eyes, and wished that she would just… go away.” “You’re right… You are good at hide and seek...” I said, wishing to myself that he would just go away and hearing the familiar ding of a successful transaction sound on both of our phones as if to answer my prayers. I reached out my hand as a formality and he grabbed it and shook it vigorously. I forced a smile and stood, although what he said next made my blood nearly freeze. “You’re the first person to find me in oh so long…” He trailed off as he said it, his voice slowly shifting from that of an exited child to the cold blooded maniac that he was. “Maybe my games won’t be so one sided from now on,” He said, his voice disturbingly normal. Although, even without looking back I could tell that the same sickeningly sweet smile was glued to his face. I kept walking but waved my arm as though saying goodbye. The worst part was that I could feel him watching me as I walked back to my car… Not just at first, like if he was watching me leave, but the entire way back, and even as I got in my car. I took a moment to look around and sighed as I saw nothing. It might not sound like much to you. I don’t know, I can still hardly describe it myself, but he had this… creepy way of getting under your skin just by talking to you. I wrote it off as me just being paranoid, the guy harvests organs from people for a living so of course everything he says is creepy. I groaned and started my car, but it wasn’t until I hit the freeway that I was finally able to shake the feeling of his gaze. It’s not like he could’ve been following me, by then I was already paranoid enough to be checking for that, making a few detours just to be sure of it. And because of my detours, I ended up being about an hour past the scheduled drop off with the buyer… Lost my chance at a tip for sure, guy was furious and there was nothing I could tell him to calm him down. I’m pretty sure, ‘sorry I’m late, but the seller was a total psycho and I wanted to make sure he wasn’t following me,’ wouldn’t have been a very good excuse. Whatever, I had my money and the buyer had his organs and plenty of time for whatever operation that used them. Not much to complain about on either side, well except for the fact that I already knew I wouldn’t be sleeping that night. Especially because the feeling of being watched had returned as soon as I set foot out of my car which was, again, impossible. The site never tells the sellers anything about the buyers or transporters, so there’s no way he could have known where I was headed to and no way that he could have followed me. I hopped back in my car and started to head for home, hoping that a few tabs of melatonin would be enough for at least a few hours of sleep. And again, I could feel eyes on me as I drove and I saw his eerie smile everywhere until I hit the highway. I felt a weight lift off of my shoulders then, although I made sure to take the most winding path home that I could afford gas for (which was quite a bit after a job like that). By the time I did get home it was starting to get dark, and I had made a few loops around my apartment just to be sure I didn’t still feel his eyes on me. Luckily, my apartment building has a public parking garage attached to it so even if I was being followed I felt safe enough that nobody would be able to find my room. But Just to be sure, I took the stairs for the first time in months. Have any of you ever climbed seven flights of stairs out of paranoia before Rijento? Well in case you haven’t let me tell you what it’s like. Do you remember running up the stairs from the basement after turning off the lights as a kid? That feeling of unease and terror? Well it’s like that, but you aren’t a kid anymore. It’s not the dark or what imaginary monsters could be lurking in it that frightens you anymore. Instead, you’re worried about who could be hiding in the darkness, what real monster could be following you up those stairs… I’m no slouch when it comes to exercise but it still drained everything out of me hauling my body up those stairs on my hands and feet like an animal as fast as I could. I got inside and locked the door securely behind me, panting, covered in sweat, but I sighed in relief with the fact that I hadn’t felt anyone watching me at all during my climb. I took a moment to catch my breath, slumping down by the door and chuckling to myself while shaking my head. I couldn’t believe that I’d let that freak get so deep under my skin. Once I had caught my breath, I stood up and made my way to my couch before flopping onto it. I wanted nothing more than to go to sleep then and there, but I had to be smart with my money this time. I immediately cashed the Bitcoin out. Better to pay myself out in small increments, but I had bills to pay and I’d already learned my lesson about leaving things in Bitcoin. Once business was taken care of, I grabbed the remote control and flicked on the TV. The familiar faces of the local news anchors greeted me and I began drifting off to sleep while listening to the happenings of our city. It was around seven a.m. when I was woken up by the sound of the ‘breaking news’ alert coming on. “We are just receiving reports of a ghastly murder of one [yeah, I’m not gonna put her name or age here] year old college student living on her own. Police investigators say that several of her organs were found to be missing and that they found evidence of someone living in her home without her knowledge for quite some time before the murder…” The reporters kept talking about how much of a tragedy the situation was… But I wasn’t listening. How could I listen… I’ve never been less happy to be right then I was at that moment. I shuddered thinking about it. My thoughts and paranoia regarding the man I’d met the other day bubbling back up to the surface. It was then that the reality of what I’d done hit me like a freight train. By accepting that contract I doomed that girl to die… All because I needed some quick cash. I stood up and went to the kitchen and opened my liquor cabinet. Without looking, I grabbed a bottle of something with shaking hands and fumbled with the top while trying to keep my mind clear of thoughts. Once I had the cap off I took several deep swigs from the bottle, spilling quite a bit down my chin before I set it down and gasped for air. The burn of the alcohol in my throat gave me something to focus on while it worked its magic on the rest of my body. As my mind slowly clouded I found my way to a chair and found it easier to think about what happened without panicking. My first thought was that I needed to do something. I knew the guy’s face, I should go to the cops! It was at this moment that the… Less impulsive side of my brain kicked in. I go to the cops and all I do is give myself a one way ticket to an early grave. My employers don’t take kindly to police interactions. I slowly resigned myself to the fact that I was going to have to live with the consequences of this job for the rest of my life… I’m a coward, I know. Anyways, the next few days passed by slowly. I was… Not in a good place mentally and I’m sure you remember how much alcohol my cabinets were stocked with. I blacked out more than once only to wake up gasping for breath from drinking too much. It was honestly a miracle that I didn’t kill myself through alcohol poisoning. But I… Managed to come to terms with everything. Don’t get me wrong, I still had nightmares where I was the guy hiding in that girls closet… But I wasn’t drinking my problems away anymore, although I think that was more because of the fact that I’d run out of liquor than any meaningful character development. It was about a week later that I was able to get my first night of actual sleep. I didn’t dream about anything either so that was a plus. I know it probably sounds bad, but I was starting to feel normal again… Like I could maybe find a way to just be myself… Either way, even after all that I still wanted to keep my job. I just added a new rule: no organs. From there I fell back into more or less my old routine. I went to eat out almost every day though, I thought any excuse that got me cleaned up and out of my place was worth taking… And then, I began to feel it again. That skin-crawling sensation of eyes on me from somewhere that I felt the day I met Mr. Hide&Seek. I didn’t think much of it at first, I only felt the eyes when I was surrounded by other people so of course one or two would be looking my way right? I thought I was just guilty and paranoid. But no matter what I did, I would always feel like I was being watched whenever other people were around. So I started driving more and more and eating out less and less. Not driving anywhere in particular, just driving… I felt safe on the open road, I couldn’t feel any eyes on me… For about a week. It started small. A shiver down my spine here and there. A sharp sensation that made my eyes snap to one car or another. Then it came more frequently, and I began to get more and more paranoid as the feeling became stronger and stronger. I started driving less and less, and whenever I did, I kept my eyes on the cars around me. Trying desperately to find where that feeling was coming from. To find who was watching me… Trying to catch a glimpse of his face in a passing car. I even thought I did see him a few times… Except that was just paranoia… I hope. Eventually, I stopped driving unless I had to. I shut myself in my apartment, only going out to get groceries and always, always making sure that I didn’t feel anyone watching me before I parked. But that feeling would always find me whenever I went out. This went on for about a month. I started to drink again, I didn’t go out to eat or drive anymore. I paid someone to deliver my groceries to the garage of my building. All I did was eat, sleep, drink, and watch movies or play games… I’d be living the dream, if I didn’t think a serial killer was stalking me. Part of me believed that I was just being paranoid and to be honest I desperately wanted to believe that part of me… But not enough to stake my life on it. And after another week of living like a shut-in the feeling of being watched started to re-surface. Like before it started off small. I felt a ping of eyes on me and from then on I kept the blinds securely closed. Even then, the feeling persisted for days, gradually gathering in strength. So I emptied out all of my closets and cabinets daily… Eventually I just left all of the doors open and everything on the floor so that I could look in to any hiding spot in an instant… But that feeling still persisted. I stopped drinking because I was terrified of being attacked. I started sleeping less and less and when I had to sleep, I slept inside of my closet and barred the doors shut from the inside. I ate and drank only when I felt hungry and always with my back to a corner of the room or locked in my closet… But I could still feel eyes on me, feel His eyes on me the same way I had back at the park. It was about a month later when I finally discovered my haven. The one place left that I didn’t feel watched. The stairwell of my building. I found that whenever I went down and back up the stars to get my groceries – as I’d long since stopped using the elevator – that I would have a brief respite from the feeling of being watched. I started to spend all of my waking hours there, sat on one of the stairs without a care in the world. I only left them to eat and sleep and whenever I entered the building proper I would feel eyes on me almost immediately. But having those stairs to return to made my life almost bearable. It had been a long time since I had anywhere I felt safe, and like every place before it I kept waiting form the feeling of being watched to follow me into the stairwell… But it never did. For another month, I fell into a somewhat bearable rhythm. I’d wake up in my closet feeling watched, I’d eat in the corner of my kitchen feeling watched, and then I’d scurry off to the stairwell where I could blessedly feel alone – Especially near the top floors where the stairs were seldom used. But all good things must come to an end and all that, and while I never did feel watched in the stairs, I did run out of money. Apartments and cars don’t pay for themselves after all, and while I managed a few months on the blood money from my last job it was finally time to get back to work. In the months since I last logged on to the site, things had calmed down significantly and there were now plenty of jobs that didn’t break any of my rules… So I decided to go with a route that I’d done before a couple of times. A gun run. The seller always treated me to a drink or two at his bar and was also always well armed so I felt that it would be a nice and easy job that I could feel safe doing. After confirming the job I closed my laptop, pulled on a fresh set of clothing, and headed out the door. I wanted to get this over and done with, and thankfully the feeling of being watched was rather light that day. I do admit, however, that I lingered in the stairwell for a bit before heading out. I wanted a bit of time alone before being out in the open for the first time in months. Anyways, I hopped in my car after about thirty minutes of blessed stairwell time and headed to the bar. After about two hours of paranoid and twisting driving I managed to make it just on time and pulled my car into the alleyway behind the bar. The owner greeted me with a smile as I got out of my car, “T, long time no see!” he said, his smile fading as I walked up and he got a better look at me. “Holy shit man, are you feeling okay?” he asked, genuine worry in the eyes of the large man. “No… I’m pretty far from okay…” I said with an exhausted sigh. I could still feel the faintest hint of eyes on me even now, though I know that the owner wouldn’t let me be jumped at his bar. “It’s a long story,” I offered, realizing for the first time that it might be nice to actually tell someone what happened. “Is that so.” he said with a hint of a smile and a shake of his head. “Well, hows about we get you a drink while the boys get ready to load up your car.” He offered in return, making me smile. “There’s always plenty of time for stories at my bar.” He said proudly. “I’d like that…” I said with another exhausted sigh, managing to keep the smile up as he put an arm around me and lead me in the back door of the bar. “Oh, by the way, how did you hold up during the bitcoin crash? I heard it hit a couple of transporters pretty hard.” he said, making me chuckle as we made our way through the kitchen. “Funny you should mention that,” I said, making him raise an eyebrow, “because that’s how my long story star—” I began, only to stop short when I looked at the bar. HE was siting there, sipping on a beer without a care in the world. He noticed me out of the corner of his eye and that same sickeningly sweet smile crept onto his face as his eyes met mine. I froze. There was no way that this was a coincidence. There was no way that he just happened to be at this bar at this time. I was broken from my trance by the bar owner waving his hand in front of my face and saying my name, “Hello? T, you alright?” I quickly ducked back into the kitchen and started to hyperventilate. How did he know? How could he possibly have known that I would be here? Did he follow me? “Did who follow you?” The owner’s voice brought me back to reality once again as I realized I’d been thinking out loud. His face was concerned, bordering on scared. “How long has that guy been at the bar?” I asked, hoping that the owner knew who I was talking about. “If you mean tall, thin, and creepy then about an hour… What is going on T?” He asked, as I slumped against the wall. I started crying. I broke down and burst back into the bar only to see that Mr. Hide&Seek he was already gone. “I… I need to go. I need to get home!” I said, pushing past the owner and running to my car. He called after me, trying to get me to stay and explain what the hell was happening but I wasn’t listening. For all I know, Mr. Hide&Seek could be breaking in to my apartment already. I drove straight home and threw open the door to my apartment. It had still been locked, but I wasn’t taking any chances. I grabbed a knife from the kitchen and checked everywhere. But he wasn’t there. Then, my phone rang and scared the living hell out of me. I checked the number and gulped when I saw that it was blocked. I considered not answering but in the end I picked up the call. “H-Hello?” I asked tentatively. “T… What the hell happened at the bar?” a modulated voice rang through the speaker in my ear, making me wince. It was one of the site admins for sure. I was silent for a moment before telling the admin everything. I couldn’t see the man, but I could feel a sudden change when I mentioned seeing Mr. Hide&Seek at the bar. “T,” the admin began, a serious edge to his voice. “I need you to log in to the site… _Now_” he said, and something in me told me to listen. I booted up my laptop and hopped on to the site. As soon as I logged in a dialog appeared that I’d never seen before. ‘ADMIN would like to take control of this computer. Do you consent to this?’ With two buttons. One for yes. One for no. I clicked yes and watched as my cursor began to move on it’s own. “Thank you T. This will only take a moment…” the admin said, a practiced calm in his voice as he downloaded several files and began to do… Something on my laptop. A minute later a dialog box popped up that said, ‘Threat detected!’ and the admin sighed and his voice sharpened as he spoke. “T… You’ve been compromised. You’ve had a nasty piece of spyware installed on your machine, for about a month by the looks of things. It’s been recording your keystrokes and giving someone remote access to your camera…” the admin explained, making me gulp as I realized that all of my information was insecure. “B-but, there’s no way! I haven’t download anything!” I said, making the admin mutter something as a bout of typing could be heard coming through the phone. The admin’s voice was cold and calculated when he spoke next. “No… No you didn’t…” he said, making me gulp. “This software was installed via _USB_…” the admin said, making my heart nearly stop. Hide&Seek had been in my home! He had been here without me noticing and put that program on my laptop. Even after all of my paranoia, he still found his way into my room without me knowing. “I’m going to delete the program,” the admin said, and a few keystrokes later, “done… What the—” As the admin deleted the program, thousands of windows began popping up on the screen of my laptop. All of them saying the same thing… ‘olly olly oxen free’ After that, I threw my laptop in the trash and got a new one as well as a new phone, sim card and all. I was taking no chances. I got all new accounts for everything and the admin told me he revoked Mr. Hide&Seek’s membership personally. But I’m going to disappear all the same, I have a plane ticket to somewhere and my bags are already packed. Don’t look for me, and if you ever start to feel like you’re being watched… It’s because you are.
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Over the past 100 days, Grayscale has bought every third bitcoin
Over the past 100 days, Grayscale has bought every third bitcoin The Grayscale Investments cryptocurrency investment fund acquired every third bitcoin mined in the last 100 days. And in April, the fund bought 50% of all ETH mined. At the same time, despite the financial crisis and the fall of the cryptocurrency market in March, shares of Grayscale crypto funds in the first quarter of 2020 attracted record investments, which indicates a growing interest of institutional investors in the crypto industry. Why does the company need so many coins, what is its current position regarding the crypto market and what role does it play on it?
Aggressive Grayscale crypto purchases have recently been spotted with respect to ether. So, by April 24, the company had bought about 756 539 ETNs (accurate data are not publicly available) for its Ethereum Trust fund. This is about 48.4% of all 1.5 million coins mined since the beginning of this year. As a result, the company already owns 1% of all coins in circulation and only increases the pace of purchases. The first user to notice this was Reddit under the nickname u/nootropicat. According to the latest quarterly report by Grayscale, the flow of investments in ETN reached a record level for the first three months of 2020 — $110 million. This is a very sharp increase, given that total investments in ETN for the previous two years amounted to $95.8 million. The total demand for the Ethereum fund grew over the quarter is almost 2.5 times compared with the fourth quarter of 2019. From the beginning of the year until the end of April, the company issued 5.23 million shares of the fund at 0.09427052 ETN apiece. At the same time, shares are traded with a premium of 420% relative to the current price of the coin — $92 against $17.70. That is, investors are willing to pay extra pretty much not to deal with cryptocurrency on their own. Most likely, the increase in the rate of purchase of the coin is associated with the upcoming upgrade of the network to the state of Ethereum 2.0. It can take place at the end of July, but, most likely, it will happen not earlier than the end of the year. After the upgrade, the network will become more scalable and there will be the possibility of staking — validators will be able to receive passive income for providing their funds to confirm the blocks. The crypto market, by the way, is also preparing for the transition of the ecosystem to a new stage. ETH has grown 55% since the crash in March, from $110 to $202 on the day of publication. At the end of April, CoinDesk drew attention to the increase in the number of long positions in ETH futures — this indicates expectations for further growth of the coin.
Last quarter — the most successful in the history of the company
In May, Grayscale released a report on the results of the first quarter of this year. “Despite the decline in risky assets this quarter, Grayscale’s assets continue to approach record highs, as does our share of the digital asset market,” the document says. And this despite the coronavirus pandemic, the global recession and the traditional cryptocurrency market volatility. A record $503.7 million investment was raised in the first quarter. This is almost twice the previous quarterly maximum of $254 million in the third quarter of last year and accounts for 83% of the total capital of $1.07 billion raised for the entire 2019. New investors accounted for $160 million of raised funds. The main products of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and Grayscale Ethereum Trust raised $388.9 million and $110 million, respectively. It is noteworthy that the company reduced the premium on stocks of funds relative to the price of assets. 88% of investments came from institutional investors, among which hedge funds prevail; 5% — from accredited individuals, 4% — from pension accounts (yes, pension funds are extremely conservative in nature, but also invest in bitcoin against the background of a decrease in the profitability of other assets); 3% came from family offices, and 38% of customers invested in several products at once. It is noteworthy that two years ago the share of institutional investors was about 50% — it is obvious that they no longer consider bitcoin as something criminal. “Many of our investors see digital assets as medium and long-term investment opportunities and the main component of their investment portfolios. Quarterly inflows doubled to $ 503.7 million, demonstrating that demand is reaching new peak levels even in conditions of “risk reduction”, the document says. Today, more than 46.5% of the inflow of funds was attracted from multi-strategic investors. Crypto investors accounted for only 11.2% of the inflow, according to the report. Grayscale currently operates ten cryptocurrency investment products targeted at institutional investors. They cover PTS, ETN, ETS, BCH, ZEC, XRP, LTC, ZEN, XLM. The value of the assets under his management is more than $3.8 billion. GBTC is the most demanded product, most investors invest in it and it takes about 1.7% of the total volume of circulating bitcoins. Aggregate quarterly flow of funds to different Grayscale products. Pay attention to the growing share of investors diversifying portfolios with products tied to altcoins. Since January of this year, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has been registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to it, the company provides quarterly and annual reports in the form of 10-K. The status makes it possible to sell shares of a trust in the secondary market after 6 months, rather than 12, as before, and also increases the confidence of conservative investors. Other products comply with OTCQX reporting standards in the OTC market and are approved by the US Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FINRA) for public offering. Amount of assets managed by Grayscale as of May 20, 2020. It is noteworthy that the news about the success of Grayscale comes amid news of how panicky investors in traditional assets are fleeing from market turmoil. So, the largest fund managers — BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street Global Advisors — lost several trillion in capitalization of their assets, and BlackRock in the first quarter for the first time in five years saw a net outflow of funds from its long-term investment products.
Bitcoin is the best asset for hedging portfolios in crisis
At the end of April, Grayscale also released a separate report on the analysis of the impact of regulators during a pandemic and the crisis caused by it and how it affected the bitcoin and cryptocurrency market as a whole. The document said fiat currencies are at risk of devaluation as central banks print more and more money. Even the US dollar, which is the world’s reserve currency, risks being devalued if the US Federal Reserve continues to print the currency in trillions. A decrease in interest rates to zero and negative values deprives government bonds of the status of “safe haven” during the crisis. Therefore, investors are trying to diversify their portfolios with alternative instruments. Cryptocurrencies are the best choice for this, according to the authors of the report. The text emphasizes the historical significance of gold as a global standard, but it is noted that in the modern digital world it is becoming increasingly burdensome for investors — it has complex logistics. Bitcoin seems resistant to the problems that other assets face. Therefore, in times of economic uncertainty, the first cryptocurrency is one of the best assets that investors can use to hedge their portfolios. The coin performs better than any other asset, including fiat currencies, government bonds, and traditional commodities like gold. The authors of the report emphasize that Bitcoin has already begun to show signs of becoming a protective asset. At the same time, the company believes that bitcoin is an excellent asset not only in times of crisis. So, in December 2019, Managing Director of Grayscale Investments Michael Sonnenshine said that the company expects an influx of investments in bitcoin after the transfer of $68 trillion of savings between generations in the next 25 years. Today, this capital is invested in traditional assets, but a significant part of these wealth millennials will invest in cryptocurrencies. Already, according to him, investments in GBTC are among the five most popular among young people, ahead of, for example, investments in Microsoft and Netflix.
The unprecedented financial measures taken by the US Federal Reserve, as well as the worsening recession, are forcing even the most conservative investors to rethink their current strategies and portfolio composition. Many of them are increasingly beginning to appreciate the fixed emission and non-correlation of Bitcoin — it is becoming a tool for risk diversification. Growing institutional interest is driving the acceleration of coin prices. Subscribe to our Telegram channel
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