Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Nears All-Time High in Final ...

Testing the Tide | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - June 2020

We would rather be ruined than changed.
-W H Auden, The Age of Anxiety
This is my forty-third portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $726 306
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 118
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $78 730
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $111 691
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $201 745
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $39 357
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $231 269
Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 668
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 310
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 532
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $117 757
Secured physical gold – $18 913
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $10 479
Bitcoin – $148 990
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 841
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 553
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 484
Total portfolio value: $1 765 743 (+$8 485 or 0.5%)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 42.2% (2.8% under)
Global shares – 22.0%
Emerging markets shares – 2.3%
International small companies – 3.0%
Total international shares – 27.3% (2.7% under)
Total shares – 69.5% (5.5% under)
Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over)
Australian bonds – 4.7%
International bonds – 9.4%
Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under)
Gold – 7.7%
Bitcoin – 8.4%
Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
The overall portfolio increased slightly over the month. This has continued to move the portfolio beyond the lows seen in late March.
The modest portfolio growth of $8 000, or 0.5 per cent, maintains its value at around that achieved at the beginning of the year.
[Chart]
The limited growth this month largely reflects an increase in the value of my current equity holdings, in VAS and A200 and the Vanguard retail funds. This has outweighed a small decline in the value of Bitcoin and global shares. The value of the bond holdings also increased modestly, pushing them to their highest value since around early 2017.
[Chart]
There still appears to be an air of unreality around recent asset price increases and the broader economic context. Britain's Bank of England has on some indicators shown that the aftermath of the pandemic and lockdown represent the most challenging financial crisis in around 300 years. What is clear is that investor perceptions and fear around the coronavirus pandemic are a substantial ongoing force driving volatility in equity markets (pdf).
A somewhat optimistic view is provided here that the recovery could look more like the recovery from a natural disaster, rather than a traditional recession. Yet there are few certainties on offer. Negative oil prices, and effective offers by US equity investors to bail out Hertz creditors at no cost appear to be signs of a financial system under significant strains.
As this Reserve Bank article highlights, while some Australian households are well-placed to weather the storm ahead, the timing and severity of what lays ahead is an important unknown that will itself feed into changes in household wealth from here.
Investments this month have been exclusively in the Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS) using Selfwealth.* This has been to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares.
A moving azimuth: falling spending continues
Monthly expenses on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month.
[Chart]
The rolling average of monthly credit card spending is now at its lowest point over the period of the journey. This is despite the end of lockdown, and a slow resumption of some more normal aspects of spending.
This has continued the brief period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent kind of financial independence.
The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the degree to which portfolio distributions cover estimated total expenses, measured month to month.
[Chart]
There are two sources of volatility underlying its movement. The first is the level of expenses, which can vary, and the second is the fact that it is based on financial year distributions, which are themselves volatile.
Importantly, the distributions over the last twelve months of this chart is only an estimate - and hence the next few weeks will affect the precision of this analysis across its last 12 observations.
Estimating 2019-20 financial year portfolio distributions
Since the beginning of the journey, this time of year usually has sense of waiting for events to unfold - in particular, finding out the level of half-year distributions to June.
These represent the bulk of distributions, usually averaging 60-65 per cent of total distributions received. They are an important and tangible signpost of progress on the financial independence journey.
This is no simple task, as distributions have varied in size considerably.
A part of this variation has been the important role of sometimes large and lumpy capital distributions - which have made up between 30 to 48 per cent of total distributions in recent years, and an average of around 15 per cent across the last two decades.
I have experimented with many different approaches, most of which have relied on averaging over multi-year periods to even out the 'peaks and troughs' of how market movements may have affected distributions. The main approaches have been:
Each of these have their particular simplifications, advantages and drawbacks.
Developing new navigation tools
Over the past month I have also developed more fully an alternate 'model' for estimating returns.
This simply derives a median value across a set of historical 'cents per unit' distribution data for June and December payouts for the Vanguard funds and exchange traded funds. These make up over 96 per cent of income producing portfolio assets.
In other words, this model essentially assumes that each Vanguard fund and ETF owned pays out the 'average' level of distributions this half-year, with the average being based on distribution records that typically go back between 5 to 10 years.
Mapping the distribution estimates
The chart below sets out the estimate produced by each approach for the June distributions that are to come.
[Chart]
Some observations on these findings can be made.
The lowest estimate is the 'adjusted GFC income' observation, which essentially assumes that the income for this period is as low as experienced by the equity and bond portfolio during the Global Financial Crisis. Just due to timing differences of the period observed, this seems to be a 'worst case' lower bound estimate, which I do not currently place significant weight on.
Similarly, at the highest end, the 'average distribution rate' approach simply assumes June distributions deliver a distribution equal to the median that the entire portfolio has delivered since 1999. With higher interest rates, and larger fixed income holdings across much of that time, this seems an objectively unlikely outcome.
Similarly, the delivery of exactly the income suggested by long-term averages measured across decades and even centuries would be a matter of chance, rather than the basis for rational expectations.
Central estimates of the line of position
This leaves the estimates towards the centre of the chart - estimates of between around $28 000 to $43 000 as representing the more likely range.
I attach less weight to the historical three-year average due to the high contribution of distributed capital gains over that period of growth, where at least across equities some capital losses are likely to be in greater presence.
My preferred central estimate is the model estimate (green) , as it is based in historical data directly from the investment vehicles rather than my own evolving portfolio. The data it is based on in some cases goes back to the Global Financial Crisis. This estimate is also quite close to the raw average of all the alternative approaches (red). It sits a little above the 'adjusted income' measure.
None of these estimates, it should be noted, contain any explicit adjustment for the earnings and dividend reductions or delays arising from COVID-19. They may, therefore represent a modest over-estimate for likely June distributions, to the extent that these effects are more negative than those experienced on average across the period of the underlying data.
These are difficult to estimate, but dividend reductions could easily be in the order of 20-30 per cent, plausibly lowering distributions to the $23 000 to $27 000 range. The recently announced forecast dividend for the Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) is, for example, the lowest in four years.
As seen from chart above, there is a wide band of estimates, which grow wider still should capital gains be unexpectedly distributed from the Vanguard retail funds. These have represented a source of considerable volatility. Given this, it may seem fruitless to seek to estimate these forthcoming distributions, compared to just waiting for them to arrive.
Yet this exercise helps by setting out reasoning and positions, before hindsight bias urgently arrives to inform me that I knew the right answer all along. It also potentially helps clearly 'reject' some models over time, if the predictions they make prove to be systematically incorrect.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 81.0% 109.4%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 98.8% 133.5%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 79.2% 106.9%
Summary
The current coronavirus conditions are affecting all aspects of the journey to financial independence - changing spending habits, leading to volatility in equity markets and sequencing risks, and perhaps dramatically altering the expected pattern of portfolio distributions.
Although history can provide some guidance, there is simply no definitive way to know whether any or all of these changes will be fundamental and permanent alterations, or simply data points on a post-natural disaster path to a different post-pandemic set of conditions. There is the temptation to fit past crises imperfectly into the modern picture, as this Of Dollars and Data post illustrates well.
Taking a longer 100 year view, this piece 'The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent' is a reminder that our entire set of received truths about constructing a portfolio to survive for the long-term can be a product of a sample size of one - actual past history - and subject to recency bias.
This month has felt like one of quiet routines, muted events compared to the past few months, and waiting to understand more fully the shape of the new. Nonetheless, with each new investment, or week of lower expenditure than implied in my FI target, the nature of the journey is incrementally changing - beneath the surface.
Small milestones are being passed - such as over 40 per cent of my equity holdings being outside of the the Vanguard retail funds. Or these these retail funds - which once formed over 95 per cent of the portfolio - now making up less than half.
With a significant part of the financial independence journey being about repeated small actions producing outsized results with time, the issue of maintaining good routines while exploring beneficial changes is real.
Adding to the complexity is that embarking on the financial journey itself is likely to change who one is. This idea, of the difficulty or impossibility of knowing the preferences of a future self, is explored in a fascinating way in this Econtalk podcast episode with a philosophical thought experiment about vampires. It poses the question: perhaps we can never know ourselves at the destination? And yet, who would rationally choose ruin over any change?
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

Warning: Blockchain difficulty adjustment affecting price movements

Below are notable difficulty adjustments when hash rate fell and block times become slower for Bitcoin.
  1. 26 Mar 2020 [difficulty adjustment -15.95%, avg block time 11min 54secs]. On the 28th price crashed from $6674 to $6138 ( -8%).
  2. 8 Nov 2019 [difficulty adjustment -7.1%, avg block time 10min 46secs]. On the same day price crashed from $9234 to $8783 ( -4.88%).
  3. The next big adjustment was around Nov to Dec 2018 and there were 3 big adjustments with high block times.

Current situation:
We are 1 day 10 hours from the next difficulty adjustment. Projected difficulty adjustment is -5.61% (https://fork.lol/pow/retarget), which could indicate a small dip. However, take note that the date of last adjustment was the 5th and the 3rd halving was on the 11th, between the 5th to the 11th there was increased hashrate from miners trying to mine the final week of 12.5btc that offset the really slow block times after the halving. Therefore it will be the next difficulty adjustment after the one on the 20th that will completely reflect the slower block times after the halving. Currently the median block time taken on the 17th was around 14min (-28.5% difficulty adjustment).
For people who do not understand blockchain, basically with the Bitcoin 3rd halving, mining profitability fell for a lot of miners and they probably turned off their miners therefore the blockchain mining time became considerably slower which is reflected with slow transaction speed and higher fees as seen currently. Bitcoin sellers moving their BTC from wallet to an exchange are faced with slow transaction speed and therefore the sell pressure of BTC fell considerably which will attribute to the current price increase. There is a correlation between sell pressure and blockchain congestion (the size of the correlation is undetermined).
There is going to be a race. A race between BTC price hiking high enough to attract more miners to reduce avg block times versus the closing window of roughly 2 weeks before the next difficulty adjustment. If the price does not jump high enough, the next difficulty adjustment in the first week of June could signal a huge dip.
I am not an expert. I just did some research on the above and wanted to share with fellow Bitcoin compatriots so that we can tread with caution and not lose our shirts. I do not plan to short BTC but I will exit my BTC positions if I expect double digit negative difficulty adjustment in early June.
Please visit the original post here https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/gm23pe/warning_blockchain_difficulty_adjustment/
There are pictures in the original post as well as 2nd halving evidence with pics. I could not post pics here. If possible please upvote the original post, a lot of people downvote it. Not sure why people downvote it, maybe veterans attempting to hide information from newcomers to fleece them of their shirt.

Update 1:>! As of writing, I have opened a small short position on Bitcoin. Stop loss around 10k, estimated take profit around 8500. The reason is because the difficulty adjustment in the next 20 hours, even though is just -5% roughly is still significant. I direct you to look into all the difficulty adjustments in the last 2 years and you will know how rare it is. The ones I caught were all listed at the very top of the post. Since it is my first time shorting BTC, I take this as a learning opportunity so that I will have some experience to face the bigger difficulty adjustment in the first week of June. Analysis into execution, even in failure I am happy.!<
Update 2: The difficulty adjustment (DA) happened roughly 6 hours ago and the sell pressure from -6% DA did not seem to be affecting the market much. However, please take a look now at the estimation for the next DA.
On https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/ it is estimated to be -25%.
On https://fork.lol/pow/retarget estimated to be -18%.
On https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time the median block time for the last day was 16.8min.
My original proposition that the true DA of the halving can only be realized in the next DA stands and that it will be considerable. The increased sell pressure from that DA will be highly significant. That is why there is a race by current miners to get the BTC price up high enough to attract more miners to not have the DA drop too much.
Update 3: Current BTC price at $9100 ( ~39 hours after DA). Then again BTC could have dropped from all sorts of reason. However the coincidence with the DA and with all the past DA is just too high to simply shrug off as irrelevant. Anyways past result cannot predict future ones, stay safe with the trading. Will no longer check on this post.
References:
Difficulty adjustment dates taken from https://btc.com/stats/diff
Bitcoin graph history for price movement taken from coinmarketcap.
Median confirmation time (block time) taken from https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time

Credits to people who assisted the analysis:
kairepaire for pointing out faster block times between 5th-11th.
babies_eater for https://fork.lol/pow/retarget
moes_tavern_wifi for https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/
Pantamis for https://diff.cryptothis.com/
submitted by theforwardbrain to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Warning: Blockchain difficulty adjustment affecting price movement

Warning: Blockchain difficulty adjustment affecting price movement
Below are notable difficulty adjustments when hash rate fell and block times become slower for Bitcoin.
  1. 26 Mar 2020 [difficulty adjustment -15.95%, avg block time 11min 54secs]. On the 28th price crashed from $6674 to $6138 ( -8%).
  2. 8 Nov 2019 [difficulty adjustment -7.1%, avg block time 10min 46secs]. On the same day price crashed from $9234 to $8783 ( -4.88%).
  3. The next big adjustment was around Nov to Dec 2018 and there were 3 big adjustments with high block times.
  • 19 Dec 2018 [-9.56%, avg block time 11min 3secs]
  • 3 Dec 2018 [-15.13%, avg block time 11min 47secs]
  • 17 Nov 2018 [-7.39%, avg block time 10min 48secs]
  • There was huge drop off starting on 14th Nov all the way to a bottom on 14-15th Dec ($6351 to $3288 around -48%).

Current situation:
We are 1 day 10 hours from the next difficulty adjustment. Projected difficulty adjustment is -5.61% (https://fork.lol/pow/retarget), which could indicate a small dip. However, take note that the date of last adjustment was the 5th and the 3rd halving was on the 11th, between the 5th to the 11th there was increased hashrate from miners trying to mine the final week of 12.5btc that offset the really slow block times after the halving. Therefore it will be the next difficulty adjustment after the one on the 20th that will completely reflect the slower block times after the halving. Currently the median block time taken on the 17th was around 14min (-28.5% difficulty adjustment).

https://preview.redd.it/ysnv85wh0lz41.jpg?width=597&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e130b077f9dc2fc9d02666ef89e6f9249a05f535
For people who do not understand blockchain, basically with the Bitcoin 3rd halving, mining profitability fell for a lot of miners and they probably turned off their miners therefore the blockchain mining time became considerably slower which is reflected with slow transaction speed and higher fees as seen currently. Bitcoin sellers moving their BTC from wallet to an exchange are faced with slow transaction speed and therefore the sell pressure of BTC fell considerably which will attribute to the current price increase. There is a correlation between sell pressure and blockchain congestion (the size of the correlation is undetermined).
There is going to be a race. A race between BTC price hiking high enough to attract more miners to reduce avg block times versus the closing window of roughly 2 weeks before the next difficulty adjustment. If the price does not jump high enough, the next difficulty adjustment in the first week of June could signal a huge dip.
I am not an expert. I just did some research on the above and wanted to share with fellow Bitcoin compatriots so that we can tread with caution and not lose our shirts. I do not plan to short BTC but I will exit my BTC positions if I expect double digit negative difficulty adjustment in early June.

Bitcoin 2nd halving evidence:

2nd halving falls between the 5th and the 19th adjustment so it is only reflected on the 3rd of Aug difficulty adjustment ( -5.43%).

See the dip on the 3rd of August. Price fell from $600 to $533 about 11% drop.
Update 1:>! As of writing, I have opened a small short position on Bitcoin. Stop loss around 10k, estimated take profit around 8500. The reason is because the difficulty adjustment in the next 20 hours, even though is just -5% roughly is still significant. I direct you to look into all the difficulty adjustments in the last 2 years and you will know how rare it is. The ones I caught were all listed at the very top of the post. Since it is my first time shorting BTC, I take this as a learning opportunity so that I will have some experience to face the bigger difficulty adjustment in the first week of June. Analysis into execution, even in failure I am happy.!<
Update 2: The difficulty adjustment (DA) happened roughly 6 hours ago and the sell pressure from -6% DA did not seem to be affecting the market much. However, please take a look now at the estimation for the next DA.
On https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/ it is estimated to be -25%.
On https://fork.lol/pow/retarget estimated to be -18%.
On https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time the median block time for the last day was 16.8min.
My original proposition that the true DA of the halving can only be realized in the next DA stands and that it will be considerable. The increased sell pressure from that DA will be highly significant. That is why there is a race by current miners to get the BTC price up high enough to attract more miners to not have the DA drop too much.
References:
Difficulty adjustment dates taken from https://btc.com/stats/diff
Bitcoin graph history for price movement taken from coinmarketcap.
Median confirmation time (block time) taken from https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time

Credits to people who assisted the analysis:
kairepaire for pointing out faster block times between 5th-11th.
babies_eater for https://fork.lol/pow/retarget
moes_tavern_wifi for https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/
Pantamis for https://diff.cryptothis.com/
submitted by theforwardbrain to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Crypto-Currency: A Guide to Common Tax Situations

STATUS: Majority of questions have been answered. If yours got missed, please feel free to post it again.
Introduction
All,
Based on the rapid increase in popularity and price of bitcoin and other crypto currencies (particularly over the past year), I expect that lots of people have questions about how crypto currency will impact their taxes. This thread attempts to address several common issues. I'm posting similar versions of it here, in several major crypto subs, and eventually in the weekly "tax help" threads personalfinance runs.
I'd like to thank the /personalfinance mod team and the /tax community for their help with this thread and especially for reading earlier versions and offering several valuable suggestions/corrections.
This thread is NOT an endorsement of crypto currency as an investing strategy. There is a time and a place to debate the appropriateness of crypto as part of a diversified portfolio - but that time is not now and that place is not here. If you are interested in the general consensus of this sub on investing, I would urge you to consult the wiki while keeping in mind the general flowchart outlining basic steps to get your finances in order.
Finally, please note that this thread attempts to provide information about your tax obligations as defined by United States law (and interpreted by the IRS under the direction of the Treasury Department). I understand that a certain portion of the crypto community tends to view crypto as "tax free" due to the (actual and perceived) difficulty for the IRS to "know" about the transactions involved. I will not discuss unlawfully concealing crypto gains here nor will I suggest illegal tax avoidance activities.
The Basics
This section is best for people that don't understand much about taxes. It covers some very basic tax principles. It also assumes that all you did during the year was buy/sell a single crypto currency.
Fundamentally, the IRS treats crypto not as money, but as an asset (investment). While there are a few specific "twists" when it comes to crypto, when in doubt replace the word "crypto" with the word "stock" and you will get a pretty good idea how you should report and pay tax on crypto.
The first thing you should know is that the majority of this discussion applies to the taxes you are currently working on (2017 taxes). The tax bill that just passed applies to 2018 taxes (with a few very tiny exceptions), which most people will file in early 2019.
In general, you don't have to report or pay taxes on crypto currency holdings until you "cash out" all or part of your holdings. For now, I'm going to assume that you cash out by selling them for USD; however, other forms of cashing out will be covered later.
When you sell crypto, you report the difference between your basis (purchase price) and proceeds (sale price) on Schedule D. Your purchase price is commonly referred to as your basis; while the two terms don't mean exactly the same thing, they are pretty close to one another (in particular, there are three two ways to calculate your basis - your average cost, a first-in, first-out method, and a "specific identification" method. See more about these here and here). EDIT - you may not use average cost method with crypto - see here. If you sell at a gain, this gain increases your tax liability; if you sell at a loss, this loss decreases your tax liability (in most cases). If you sell multiple times during the year, you report each transaction separately (bad news if you trade often) but get to lump all your gains/losses together when determining how the trades impact your income.
One important thing to remember is that there are two different types of gains/losses from investments - short term gains (if you held an asset for one year or less) and long term gains (over one year; i.e. one year and one day). Short term gains are taxed at your marginal income rate (basically, just like if you had earned that money at a job) while long term gains are taxed at lower rates.
For most people, long term capital gains are taxed at 15%. However, if you are in the 10% or 15% tax bracket, congrats - your gains (up to the maximum amount of "unused space" in your bracket) are tax free! If you are in the 25%, 28%, 33%, or 35% bracket, long term gains are taxed at 15%. If you are in the 39.6% bracket, long term gains are taxed at 20%. Additionally, there is an "extra" 3.8% tax that applies to gains for those above $200,000/$250,000 (single/married). The exact computation of this tax is a little complicated, but if you are close to the $200,000 level, just know that it exists.
Finally, you should know that I'm assuming that you should treat your crypto gains/losses as investment gains/losses. I'm sure some people will try and argue that they are really "day traders" of crypto and trade as a full time job. While this is possible, the vast majority of people don't qualify for this status and you should really think several times before deciding you want to try that approach on the IRS.
"Cashing Out" - Trading Crypto for Goods/Services
I realize that not everyone that "cashes out" of crypto does so by selling it for USD. In fact, I understand that some in the crypto community view the necessity of cashing out itself as a type of myth. In this section, I discuss what happens if you trade your crypto for basically anything that isn't cash (minor sidenote - see next section for a special discussion on trading crypto for crypto; i.e. buying altcoins with crypto).
The IRS views trading crypto for something of value as a type of bartering that must be included in income. From the IRS's perspective, it doesn't matter if you sold crypto for cash and bought a car with that cash or if you just traded crypto directly for the car - in both cases, the IRS views you as having sold your crypto. This approach isn't unique to crypto - it works the same way if you trade stock for something.
This means that if you do trade your crypto for "stuff", you have to report every exchange as a sale of your crypto and calculate the gain/loss on that sale, just as if you had sold the crypto for cash.
Finally, there is one important exception to this rule. If you give your crypto away to charity (one recognized by the IRS; like a 501(c)(3) organization), the IRS doesn't make you report/pay any capital gains on the transaction. Additionally, you still get to deduct the value of your donation on the date it was made. Now, from a "selfish" point of view, you will always end up with more money if you sell the crypto, pay the tax, and keep the rest. But, if you are going to make a donation anyway, especially a large one, giving crypto where you have a big unrealized/untaxed gain is a very efficient way of doing so.
"Alt Coins" - Buying Crypto with Crypto
The previous section discusses what happens when you trade crypto for stuff. However, one thing that surprises many people is that trading crypto for crypto is also a taxable event, just like trading crypto for a car. Whether you agree with this position or not, it makes a lot of sense once you realize that the IRS doesn't view crypto as money, but instead as an asset. So to the IRS, trading bitcoin for ripple isn't like trading dollars for euros, but it is instead like trading shares of Apple stock for shares of Tesla stock.
Practically, what this means is that if you trade one crypto for another crypto (say BTC for XRP just to illustrate the point), the IRS views you as doing the following:
  • Selling for cash the amount of BTC you actually traded for XRP.
  • Owing capital gains/losses on the BTC based on its selling price (the fair market value at the moment of the exchange) and your purchase price (basis).
  • Buying a new investment (XRP) with a cost basis equal to the amount the BTC was worth when you exchanged them.
This means that if you "time" your trade wrong and the value of XRP goes down after you make the exchange, you still owe tax on your BTC gain even though you subsequently lost money. The one good piece of news in this is that when/if you sell your XRP (or change it back to BTC), you will get a capital loss for the value that XRP dropped.
There is one final point worth discussing in this section - the so called "like kind exchange" rules (aka section 1031 exchange). At a high level, these rules say that you can "swap" property with someone else without having to pay taxes on the exchange as long as you get property in return that is "like kind". Typically, these rules are used in real estate transactions. However, they can also apply to other types of transactions as well.
While the idea is simple (and makes it sound like crypto for crypto should qualify), the exact rules/details of this exception are very fact specific. Most experts (including myself, but certainly not calling myself an expert) believe that a crypto for crypto swap is not a like kind exchange. The recently passed tax bill also explicitly clarifies this issue - starting in 2018, only real estate qualifies for like kind exchange treatment. So, basically, the vast majority of evidence suggests that you can't use this "loophole" for 2017; however, there is a small minority view/some small amount of belief that this treatment would work for 2017 taxes and it is worth noting that I'm unaware of any court cases directly testing this approach.
Dealing with "Forks"
Perhaps another unpleasant surprise for crypto holders is that "forks" to create a new crypto also very likely generate a taxable event. The IRS has long (since at least the 1960s) held that "found" money is a taxable event. This approach has been litigated in court and courts have consistently upheld this position; it even has its own cool nerdy tax name - the "treasure trove" doctrine.
Practically, what this means is that if you owned BTC and it "forked" to create BCH, then the fair market value of the BCH you received is considered a "treasure trove" that must be reported as income (ordinary income - no capital gain rates). This is true whether or not you sold your BCH; if you got BCH from a fork, that is a taxable event (note - I'll continue using BTC forking to BCH in this section as an example, but the logic applies to all forks).
While everything I've discussed up to this point is pretty clearly established tax law, forks are really where things get messy with taxes. Thus, the remainder of this section contains more speculation than elsewhere in this post - the truth is that while the idea is simple (fork = free money = taxable), the details are messy and other kinds of tax treatment might apply to forks.
One basic practical problem with forks is that the new currency doesn't necessarily start trading immediately. Thus, you may have received BCH before there was a clear price or market for it. Basically, you owe tax on the value of BCH when you received it, but it isn't completely clear what that value was. There are several ways you can handle this; I'll list them in order from most accurate to least accurate (but note that this is just my personal view and there is ongoing disagreement on this issue with little/no authoritative guidance).
  • Use a futures market to determine the value of the BCH - if reliable sources published realistic estimates of what BCH will trade for in the future once trading begins, use this estimate as the value of your BCH. Pros/cons - futures markets are, in theory, pretty accurate. However, if they are volatile/subject to manipulation, they may provide an incorrect estimate of the true value of BCH. It would suck to use the first futures value published only to have that value plummet shortly thereafter, leaving you to pay ordinary income tax but only have an unrealized capital loss.
  • Wait until an exchange starts trading BCH; use the actual ("spot" price) as the value. Pros/cons - spot prices certainly reflect what you could have sold BCH for; however, it is possible that the true value of the coin was highelower when you received it as compared to when it started trading on the exchange. Thus this method seems less accurate to me than a futures based approach, but it is still certainly fairly reasonable.
  • Assume that the value is $0. This is my least preferred option, but there is still a case to be made for it. If you receive something that you didn't want, can't access, can't sell, and might fail, does it have any value? I believe the answer is yes (maybe not value it perfectly, but value it somewhat accurately), but if you honestly think the answer is no, then the correct tax answer would be to report $0 in income from the fork. The IRS would be most likely to disagree with this approach, especially since it results in the least amount of income reported for the current year (and the most favorable rates going forward). Accordingly, if you go this route, make extra sure you understand what it entails.
Note, once you've decided what to report as taxable income, this amount also becomes your cost basis in the new crypto (BCH). Thus, when you ultimately sell your BCH (or trade it for something else as described above), you calculate your gain/loss based on what you included in taxable income from the fork.
Finally, there is one more approach to dealing with forks worth mentioning. A fork "feels" a lot like a dividend - because you held BTC, you get BCH. In a stock world, if I get a cash dividend because I own the stock, that money is not treated as a "treasure trove" and subject to ordinary income rates - in most cases, it is a qualified dividend and subject to capital gain rates; in some cases, some types of stock dividends are completely non taxable. This article discusses this idea in slightly more detail and generally concludes that forks should not be treated as a dividend. Still, I would note that I'm unaware of any court cases directly testing this theory.
Ultimately, this post is supposed to be practical, so let me make sure to leave you with two key thoughts about the taxation of forks. First, I believe that the majority of evidence suggests that forks should be treated as a "treasure trove" and reported as ordinary income based on their value at creation and that this is certainly the "safest" option. Second, out of everything discussed in this post, I also believe that the correct taxation of forks is the murkiest and most "up for debate" area. If you are interested in a more detailed discussion of forks, see this thread for a previous version of this post discussing it at even more length and the comments for a discussion of this with the tax community.
Mining Crypto
Successfully mining crypto coins is a taxable event. Depending on the amount of effort you put into mining, it is either considered a hobby or a self-employment (business) activity. The IRS provides the following list of questions to help decide the correct classification:
  • The manner in which the taxpayer carries on the activity.
  • The expertise of the taxpayer or his advisors.
  • The time and effort expended by the taxpayer in carrying on the activity.
  • Expectation that assets used in activity may appreciate in value.
  • The success of the taxpayer in carrying on other similar or dissimilar activities.
  • The taxpayer’s history of income or losses with respect to the activity.
  • The amount of occasional profits, if any, which are earned.
If this still sounds complicated, that's because the distinction is subject to some amount of interpretation. As a rule of thumb, randomly mining crypto on an old computer is probably a hobby; mining full time on a custom rig is probably a business.
In either event, you must include in income the fair market value of any coins you successfully mine. These are ordinary income and your basis in these coins is their fair market value on the date they were mined. If your mining is a hobby, they go on line 21 (other income) and any expenses directly associated with mining go on schedule A (miscellaneous subject to 2% of AGI limitation). If your mining is a business, income and expenses go on schedule C.
Both approaches have pros and cons - hobby income isn't subject to the 15.3% self-employment tax, only normal income tax, but you get fewer deductions against your income and the deductions you get are less valuable. Business income has more deductions available, but you have to pay payroll (self-employment) tax of about 15.3% in addition to normal income tax.
What if I didn't keep good records? Do I really have to report every transaction?
One nice thing about the IRS treating crypto as an asset is that we can look at how the IRS treats people that "day trade" stock and often don't keep great records/have lots of transactions. While you need to be as accurate as possible, it is ok to estimate a little bit if you don't have exact records (especially concerning your cost basis). You need to put in some effort (research historical prices, etc...) and be reasonable, but the IRS would much rather you do a little bit of reasonable estimation as opposed to just not reporting anything. Sure, they might decide to audit you/disagree with some specifics, but you earn yourself a lot of credit if you can show that you honestly did the best you reasonably could and are making efforts to improve going forward.
However, concerning reporting every transaction - yes, sorry, it is clear that you have to do this, even if you made hundreds or thousands of them. Stock traders have had to go through this for many decades, and there is absolutely no reason to believe that the IRS would accept anything less from the crypto community. If you have the records or have any reasonable way of obtaining records/estimating them, you must report every transaction.
What if I don't trust you?
Well, first let me say that I can't believe you made it all the way down here to this section. Thanks for giving me an honest hearing. I would strongly encourage you to go read other well-written, honest guides. I'll link to some I like (both more technical IRS type guides and more crypto community driven guides). While a certain portion of the crypto community seems to view one of the benefits of crypto as avoiding all government regulation (including taxes), I've been pleasantly surprised to find that many crypto forums contain well reasoned, accurate tax guides. While I may not agree with 100% of their conclusions, that likely reflects true uncertainty around tax law that is fundamentally complex rather than an attempt on either end to help individuals unlawfully avoid taxes.
IRS guides
Non-IRS guides
submitted by Mrme487 to personalfinance [link] [comments]

Notes from Ethereum Core Devs Meeting #31 [1/12/18]

The next core dev meeting will be this Friday, January 26, 2018. The agenda and live stream link are located here.

Ethereum Core Devs Meeting 31 Notes

Meeting Date/Time: Friday 01/12/18 at 14:00 UTC

Meeting Duration: 1.5 hours

GitHub Agenda Page

Audio/Video of the meeting

Reddit thread

Agenda

  1. Testing Updates.
  2. Yellow paper update.
  3. EWASM update + update on the following related EIPs. a. EVM 2.0 - https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/issues/48 b. Extend DUP1-16 / SWAP1-16 With DUPN / SWAPN - https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/issues/174 c. Subroutines and Static Jumps for the EVM - https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/issues/615
  4. Stateless client development.
  5. Add ECADD and ECMUL precompiles for secp256k1 - https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/issues/603 [See this blog post for context].
  6. Introduce miner heuristic "Child pays for parent" (like in BTC) to combat the weird cases when transactions with 1000 Gwei stuck in the mempool (because they are dependent via nonce on transaction paying much less and not getting mined).
  7. Creating a relay network of nodes to mitigate issues described here and other transaction propagation issues.
  8. Fork release management/Constantinople.
  9. Client updates.
  10. Other non-agenda issues.

Notes

Video starts at [4:36].

[4:56] 1. Testing Updates

No updates.

[5:27] 2. Yellow paper update.

Gavin put the Yellow Paper under the Creative Commons Free Culture License CC-BY-SA. Yoichi and Nick Savers have been making progress handling the Yellow Paper PRs. There is still the somewhat unresolved issue of what should define the "formal standard" of Ethereum and should an update to the Yellow Paper or another specification be required for every new EIP. This can be discussed in more detail in future meetings when there is greater attendance.

[7:43] 3. EWASM update + update on the following related EIPs.

[7:55] General update

Ewasm contributors are currently meeting in person together in Lisbon. EWASM EIPs listed in the subpoints are not up to date and can be disregarded. People should use the github.com/EWASM/design repo. The design has been pretty much speced out in the last year. During the design phase there were 2 implementations done in parallel: Javascript and C++ (which can be integrated in cpp-ethereum and geth). Issues have been faced in building out EWASM including struggling with implementing synchronous code in Javascript/browser. Idea was to move to an asynchronous model. Currently there is not a full decision on using synchronous vs asynchronous, but we are leaning towards synchronous implementation in C++ to run a testnet in cpp-ethereum that can run pure Web Assembly contracts. Metering contract in Web Assembly is on the to-do list and doesn't rely on sync/async decision. Likely will take week to come to a decision on sync vs async. More technical discussion and a funny anecdote involving the asynchronous vs synchronous decision and the affects of the recent Spectre/Meltdown attacks start at [12:07].

[15:08] a. EVM 2.0 - https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/issues/48

Martin Becze will be closing this EIP. It is outdated.

[15:28] b. Extend DUP1-16 / SWAP1-16 With DUPN / SWAPN - https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/issues/174

This doesn't have to do with EWASM, it has to do with adding extra opcodes in the current EVM. It is an upgrade to EVM 1.0 which is not needed if we skip straight to EWASM.

[16:47] c. Subroutines and Static Jumps for the EVM - https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/issues/615

Greg has been working with Seed (Gitter tag) who is writing an ELM formalization of the EIP. Greg says that there is no formal social process for deciding things like EVM 1.5 implementation so he is not sure if/when it would be implemented. Greg has been working on cleaning up the proposal for those who want to use it. Greg has some ideas around an EVM 3.0 that pulls everything together with transpilation that he hasn't started working on yet and is not sure if he will.

[20:14] 4. Stateless client development.

Piper left some comments about some development of a stateless client for sharding, but it is very early. Alexey had a blog post describing stateless clients he may re-approach later.

[21:46] 5. Add ECADD and ECMUL pre-compiles for secp256k1 - https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/issues/603 [See this blog post for context].

This topic was brought up months ago with mixed commentary. Christian R. says that ECADD and ECMUL were never intended to be used for general purpose cryptography, but rather it was suppose to be used in conjunction with the pairing pre-compiles for a specific curve that is pairing friendly. Christian says that in the past it has been discussed that there must be a very compelling reason for adding a pre-compile to Ethereum. Silur mentioned that the Monero research team is working on a new ring signature (still unnamed) that can be viewed in the Monero repository. The EWASM team may run some tests to compare native running of the pre-compiles vs EWASM. Adding a new pre-compile would only give a constant speed-up or reduction in cost, but if we achieve the same thing in new virtual machine it will give us a constant speed-up for every conceivable routine and allows for building other schemes like Casper and TrueBit. This is easier with Web Assembly because we can use existing C code. For the moment it looks like focusing energy on adding these proposed pre-compiles would not be worth it compared to just waiting for the next VM (likely EWASM) which will allow far more speed-ups across all computational routines.

[37:00] 6. Introduce miner heuristic "Child pays for parent" (like in BTC) to combat the weird cases when transactions with 1000 Gwei stuck in the mempool (because they are dependent via nonce on transaction paying much less and not getting mined).

[Note: I tried my best to cover what was discussed here, but I am not an expert in Ethereum transactions. If you find a mistake please point it out to me. Thanks!] Agenda item brought up to get people's opinion on this topic. Currently in Ethereum there are transactions that are stuck in the mempool for a long time because of the way transaction ordering per account is handled. The nonce of a transaction must be greater than the previous mined transactions (or equal if you are trying to replace a transaction). For example you can't process transaction #27 before transaction #26 has been mined. Many of the stuck transactions are dependent on other transactions that pay a much smaller fee, but are not being mined. It seems people inadvertently send an initial transaction with too small of a fee and then more transactions at a higher nonce with a much higher fee that cannot be processed until the first small fee transaction is processed. Alexey wondered if this may pose an attack vector or if we would get a benefit from implementing "child pays for parent" like Bitcoin does. Peter explained even if you define the max amount of gas your transaction could potentially consume, there is no guarantee it will use that much and we won't know until the transaction is processed (the only guarantee is that 21,000 gas will be consumed - a plain ether transfer). The attack vector example would be someone pushing a transaction that truly consumes 3,000,000 gas and attach a transaction fee of 1 wei and then push another TX that claims to consume 3,000,000 gas but with a transaction fee of 1000gwei. From the outside it looks like I can both can be executed for profit from the miner's perspective, but in reality the 2nd transaction will be processed first and the 1st tx will be long running and indirectly punish the miner. Alexey was concerned about the mempool filling up and impact on clients due to the way nonces are handled. Peter clarified that transactions in the mempool in the go ethereum client only maintains the top 4,000 most expensive transactions. If your cheap transaction gets evicted, the expensive transactions you stacked on top of it get evicted as well because they are no longer executable due to the nonce.

[42:21] 7. Creating a relay network of nodes to mitigate issues described here and other transaction propagation issues.

A relay network in general is a group of peers and/or miners who use a peer list to quickly connect to a group of known peers before connecting to (or instead of connecting to) random peers using network discovery. Alexey conjectured that this may create a powerful ring of network players who can share transactions very quickly and hurt the little guys on the outside (hurting the idea of this being a mesh network of peers). Clarifications were made about the issues involving transaction propagation issues with nodes with high transaction throughput such as Infura and Bittrex. Clients suddenly stop pushing transactions or cannot keep up with the blockchain when they are pushing out so many transactions. Hudson will work towards exploring this issue more and connecting the people with the issues with the devs.

[49:45] 8. Fork release management/Constantinople.

Hudson will be working on writing up a starting plan to discuss potential release management issues. BitsBeTripping sent Hudson some good material about project management that he will review and bring to the next meeting. We need to start discussing Constantinople sooner rather than later.

[52:55] 9. Client updates.

10. Other non-agenda items

[1:05:42] Question: Will we see any scaling improvements from Constantinople?

Answer is no because it potentially includes the first steps of the Casper consensus protocol and some account abstraction EIPs, but both of those do not alleviate scaling issues. Sharding would alleviate some of the issues. We are currently mostly bound by database and processing speed due to the database. Short term there are a lot of client improvements that can be accomplished to improve disk I/O, but long term things like sharding will be necessary. The Eth Research site has a lot of interesting threads about sharding including merkle tree formats to be used and ideas around asynchronous accumulators

[1:09:57] Decision process for EIPs?

Needs to be improved. Hudson and others will work on updating EIP #1 and other improvements in Q1. Nick Savers has been added as an EIP editor. Yoichi has been added as an editor. Both are doing a great job.

Attendance

Alex Beregszaszi (EWASM/Solidity/ethereumJS), Alex Van de Sande (Mist/Ethereum Wallet), Alexey Akhunov (Turbo Geth), Ben Edgington (Consensys/Pegasys), Casey Detrio (Volunteer), Christian Reitwiessner (cpp-ethereum/Solidity), Daniel Ellison (Consensys/LLL), Greg Colvin (EVM), Hudson Jameson (Ethereum Foundation), Hugo de la Cruz (ethereumJS/EWASM), Jake Lang (EWASM), Jared Wasinger (ethereumJS/EWASM), Martin Becze (EWASM), Mikhail Kalinin (Harmony), Paweł Bylica (cpp-ethereum/EWASM), Péter Szilágyi (geth), Silur (ethereumJS / EWASM)
submitted by Souptacular to ethereum [link] [comments]

A (hopefully mathematically neutral) comparison of Lightning network fees to Bitcoin Cash on-chain fees.

A side note before I begin
For context, earlier today, sherlocoin made a post on this sub asking if Lightning Network transactions are cheaper than on-chain BCH transactions. This user also went on to complain on /bitcoin that his "real" numbers were getting downvoted
I was initially going to respond to his post, but after I typed some of my response, I realized it is relevant to a wider Bitcoin audience and the level of analysis done warranted a new post. This wound up being the longest post I've ever written, so I hope you agree.
I've placed the TL;DR at the top and bottom for the simple reason that you need to prepare your face... because it's about to get hit with a formidable wall of text.
TL;DR: While Lightning node payments themselves cost less than on-chain BCH payments, the associated overhead currently requires a LN channel to produce 16 transactions just to break-even under ideal 1sat/byte circumstances and substantially more as the fee rate goes up.
Further, the Lightning network can provide no guarantee in its current state to maintain/reduce fees to 1sat/byte.

Let's Begin With An Ideal World
Lightning network fees themselves are indeed cheaper than Bitcoin Cash fees, but in order to get to a state where a Lightning network fee can be made, you are required to open a channel, and to get to a state where those funds are spendable, you must close that channel.
On the Bitcoin network, the minimum accepted fee is 1sat/byte so for now, we'll assume that ideal scenario of 1sat/byte. We'll also assume the open and close is sent as a simple native Segwit transaction with a weighted size of 141 bytes. Because we have to both open and close, this 141 byte fee will be incurred twice. The total fee for an ideal open/close transaction is 1.8¢
For comparison, a simple transaction on the BCH network requires 226 bytes one time. The minimum fee accepted next-block is 1sat/byte. At the time of writing an ideal BCH transaction fee costs ~ 0.11¢
This means that under idealized circumstances, you must currently make at least 16 transactions on a LN channel to break-even with fees
Compounding Factors
Our world is not ideal, so below I've listed compounding factors, common arguments, an assessment, and whether the problem is solvable.
Problem 1: Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash prices are asymmetrical.
Common arguments:
BTC: If Bitcoin Cash had the same price, the fees would be far higher
Yes, this is true. If Bitcoin Cash had the same market price as Bitcoin, our ideal scenario changes substantially. An open and close on Bitcoin still costs 1.8¢ while a simple Bitcoin Cash transaction now costs 1.4¢. The break-even point for a Lightning Channel is now only 2 transactions.
Is this problem solvable?
Absolutely.
Bitcoin Cash has already proposed a reduction in fees to 1sat for every 10 bytes, and that amount can be made lower by later proposals. While there is no substantial pressure to implement this now, if Bitcoin Cash had the same usage as Bitcoin currently does, it is far more likely to be implemented. If implemented at the first proposed reduction rate, under ideal circumstances, a Lightning Channel would need to produce around 13 transactions for the new break even.
But couldn't Bitcoin reduce fees similarly
The answer there is really tricky. If you reduce on-chain fees, you reduce the incentive to use the Lightning Network as the network becomes more hospitable to micropaments. This would likely increase the typical mempool state and decrease the Lightning Channel count some. The upside is that when the mempool saturates with low transaction fees, users are then re-incentivized to use the lightning network after the lowes fees are saturated with transactions. This should, in theory, produce some level of a transaction fee floor which is probably higher on average than 0.1 sat/byte on the BTC network.
Problem 2: This isn't an ideal world, we can't assume 1sat/byte fees
Common arguments:
BCH: If you tried to open a channel at peak fees, you could pay $50 each way
BTC: LN wasn't implemented which is why the fees are low now
Both sides have points here. It's true that if the mempool was in the same state as it was in December of 2017, that a user could have potentially been incentivized to pay an open and close channel fee of up to 1000 sat/byte to be accepted in a reasonable time-frame.
With that being said, two factors have resulted in a reduced mempool size of Bitcoin: Increased Segwit and Lightning Network Usage, and an overall cooling of the market.
I'm not going to speculate as to what percentage of which is due to each factor. Instead, I'm going to simply analyze mempool statistics for the last few months where both factors are present.
Let's get an idea of current typical Bitcoin network usage fees by asking Johoe quick what the mempool looks like.
For the last few months, the bitcoin mempool has followed almost the exact same pattern. Highest usage happens between 10AM and 3PM EST with a peak around noon. Weekly, usage usually peaks on Tuesday or Wednesday with enough activity to fill blocks with at least minimum fee transactions M-F during the noted hours and usually just shy of block-filling capacity on Sat and Sun.
These observations can be additionally evidenced by transaction counts on bitinfocharts. It's also easier to visualize on bitinfocharts over a longer time-frame.
Opening a channel
Under pre-planned circumstances, you can offload channel creation to off-peak hours and maintain a 1sat/byte rate. The primary issue arises in situations where either 1) LN payments are accepted and you had little prior knowledge, or 2) You had a previous LN pathway to a known payment processor and one or more previously known intermediaries are offline or otherwise unresponsive causing the payment to fail.
Your options are:
A) Create a new LN channel on-the-spot where you're likely to incur current peak fee rates of 5-20sat/byte.
B) Create an on-chain payment this time and open a LN channel when fees are more reasonable.
C) Use an alternate currency for the transaction.
There is a fundamental divide among the status of C. Some people view Bitcoin as (primarily) a storage of value, and thus as long as there are some available onramps and offramps, the currency will hold value. There are other people who believe that fungibility is what gives cryptocurrency it's value and that option C would fundamentally undermine the value of the currency.
I don't mean to dismiss either argument, but option C opens a can of worms that alone can fill economic textbooks. For the sake of simplicity, we will throw out option C as a possibility and save that debate for another day. We will simply require that payment is made in crypto.
With option B, you would absolutely need to pay the peak rate (likely higher) for a single transaction as a Point-of-Sale scenario with a full mempool would likely require at least one confirm and both parties would want that as soon as possible after payment. It would not be unlikely to pay 20-40 sat/byte on a single transaction and then pay 1sat/byte for an open and close to enable LN payments later. Even in the low end, the total cost is 20¢ for on-chain + open + close.
With present-day-statistics, your LN would have to do 182 transactions to make up for the one peak on-chain transaction you were forced to do.
With option A, you still require one confirm. Let's also give the additional leeway that in this scenario you have time to sit and wait a couple of blocks for your confirm before you order / pay. You can thus pay peak rates alone and not peak + ensure next block rates. This will most likely be in the 5-20 sat/byte range. With 5sat/byte open and 1sat/byte close, your LN would have to do 50 transactions to break even
In closing, fees are incurred by the funding channel, so there could be scenarios where the receiving party is incentivized to close in order to spend outputs and the software automatically calculates fees based on current rates. If this is the case, the receiving party could incur a higher-than-planned fee to the funding party.
With that being said, any software that allows the funding party to set the fee beforehand would avoid unplanned fees, so we'll assume low fees for closing.
Is this problem solvable?
It depends.
In order to avoid the peak-fee open/close ratio problem, the Bitcoin network either needs to have much higher LN / Segwit utilization, or increase on-chain capacity. If it gets to a point where transactions stack up, users will be required to pay more than 1sat/byte per transaction and should expect as much.
Current Bitcoin network utilization is close enough to 100% to fill blocks during peak times. I also did an export of the data available at Blockchair.com for the last 3000 blocks which is approximately the last 3 weeks of data. According to their block-weight statistics, The average Bitcoin block is 65.95% full. This means that on-chain, Bitcoin can only increase in transaction volume by around 50% and all other scaling must happen via increased Segwit and LN use.
Problem 3: You don't fully control your LN channel states.
Common arguments:
BCH: You can get into a scenario where you don't have output capacity and need to open a new channel.
BCH: A hostile actor can cause you to lose funds during a high-fee situation where a close is forced.
BTC: You can easily re-load your channel by pushing outbound to inbound.
BCH: You can't control whether nodes you connect to are online or offline.
There's a lot to digest here, but LN is essentially a 2-way contract between 2 parties. Not only does the drafting party pay the fees as of right now, but connected 3rd-parties can affect the state of this contract. There are some interesting scenarios that develop because of it and you aren't always in full control of what side.
Lack of outbound capacity
First, it's true that if you run out of outbound capacity, you either need to reload or create a new channel. This could potentially require 0, 1, or 2 additional on-chain transactions.
If a network loop exists between a low-outbound-capacity channel and yourself, you could push transactional capacity through the loop back to the output you wish to spend to. This would require 0 on-chain transactions and would only cost 1 (relatively negligible) LN fee charge. For all intents and purposes... this is actually kind of a cool scenario.
If no network loop exists from you-to-you, things get more complex. I've seen proposals like using Bitrefill to push capacity back to your node. In order to do this, you would have an account with them and they would lend custodial support based on your account. While people opting for trustless money would take issue in 3rd party custodians, I don't think this alone is a horrible solution to the LN outbound capacity problem... Although it depends on the fee that bitrefill charges to maintain an account and account charges could negate the effectiveness of using the LN. Still, we will assume this is a 0 on-chain scenario and would only cost 1 LN fee which remains relatively negligible.
If no network loop exists from you and you don't have a refill service set up, you'll need at least one on-chain payment to another LN entity in exchange for them to push LN capacity to you. Let's assume ideal fee rates. If this is the case, your refill would require an additional 7 transactions for that channel's new break-even. Multiply that by number of sat/byte if you have to pay more.
Opening a new channel is the last possibility and we go back to the dynamics of 13 transactions per LN channel in the ideal scenario.
Hostile actors
There are some potential attack vectors previously proposed. Most of these are theoretical and/or require high fee scenarios to come about. I think that everyone should be wary of them, however I'm going to ignore most of them again for the sake of succinctness.
This is not to be dismissive... it's just because my post length has already bored most casual readers half to death and I don't want to be responsible for finishing the job.
Pushing outbound to inbound
While I've discussed scenarios for this push above, there are some strange scenarios that arise where pushing outbound to inbound is not possible and even some scenarios where a 3rd party drains your outbound capacity before you can spend it.
A while back I did a testnet simulation to prove that this scenario can and will happen it was a post response that happened 2 weeks after the initial post so it flew heavily under the radar, but the proof is there.
The moral of this story is in some scenarios, you can't count on loaded network capacity to be there by the time you want to spend it.
Online vs Offline Nodes
We can't even be sure that a given computer is online to sign a channel open or push capacity until we try. Offline nodes provide a brick-wall in the pathfinding algorithm so an alternate route must be found. If we have enough channel connectivity to be statistically sure we can route around this issue, we're in good shape. If not, we're going to have issues.
Is this problem solvable?
Only if the Lightning network can provide an (effectively) infinite amount of capacity... but...
Problem 4: Lightning Network is not infinite.
Common arguments:
BTC: Lightning network can scale infinitely so there's no problem.
Unfortunately, LN is not infinitely scalable. In fact, finding a pathway from one node to another is roughly the same problem as the traveling salesman problem. Dijkstra's algorithm which is a problem that diverges polynomially. The most efficient proposals have a difficulty bound by O(n^2).
Note - in the above I confused the complexity of the traveling salesman problem with Dijkstra when they do not have the same bound. With that being said, the complexity of the LN will still diverge with size
In lay terms, what that means is every time you double the size of the Lightning Network, finding an indirect LN pathway becomes 4 times as difficult and data intensive. This means that for every doubling, the amount of traffic resulting from a single request also quadruples.
You can potentially temporarily mitigate traffic by bounding the number of hops taken, but that would encourage a greater channel-per-user ratio.
For a famous example... the game "6 degrees of Kevin Bacon" postulates that Kevin Bacon can be connected by co-stars to any movie by 6 degrees of separation. If the game is reduced to "4 degrees of Kevin Bacon," users of this network would still want as many connections to be made, so they'd be incentivized to hire Kevin Bacon to star in everything. You'd start to see ridiculous mash-ups and reboots just to get more connectivity... Just imagine hearing Coming soon - Kevin Bacon and Adam Sandlar star in "Billy Madison 2: Replace the face."
Is this problem solvable?
Signs point to no.
So technically, if the average computational power and network connectivity can handle the problem (the number of Lightning network channels needed to connect the world)2 in a trivial amount of time, Lightning Network is effectively infinite as the upper bound of a non-infinite earth would limit time-frames to those that are computationally feasible.
With that being said, BTC has discussed Lightning dev comments before that estimated a cap of 10,000 - 1,000,000 channels before problems are encountered which is far less than the required "number of channels needed to connect the world" level.
In fact SHA256 is a newer NP-hard problem than the traveling saleseman problem. That means that statistically, and based on the amount of review that has been given to each problem, it is more likely that SHA256 - the algorithm that lends security to all of bitcoin - is cracked before the traveling salesman problem is. Notions that "a dedicated dev team can suddenly solve this problem, while not technically impossible, border on statistically absurd.
Edit - While the case isn't quite as bad as the traveling salesman problem, the problem will still diverge with size and finding a more efficient algorithm is nearly as unlikely.
This upper bound shows that we cannot count on infinite scalability or connectivity for the lightning network. Thus, there will always be on-chain fee pressure and it will rise as the LN reaches it's computational upper-bound.
Because you can't count on channel states, the on-chain fee pressure will cause typical sat/byte fees to raise. The higher this rate, the more transactions you have to make for a Lightning payment open/close operation to pay for itself.
This is, of course unless it is substantially reworked or substituted for a O(log(n))-or-better solution.
Finally, I'd like to add, creating an on-chain transaction is a set non-recursive, non looping function - effectively O(1), sending this transaction over a peer-to-peer network is bounded by O(log(n)) and accepting payment is, again, O(1). This means that (as far as I can tell) on-chain transactions (very likely) scale more effectively than Lightning Network in its current state.
Additional notes:
My computational difficulty assumptions were based on a generalized, but similar problem set for both LN and on-chain instances. I may have overlooked additional steps needed for the specific implementation, and I may have overlooked reasons a problem is a simplified version requiring reduced computational difficulty.
I would appreciate review and comment on my assumptions for computational difficulty and will happily correct said assumptions if reasonable evidence is given that a problem doesn't adhere to listed computational difficulty.
TL;DR: While Lightning node payments themselves cost less than on-chain BCH payments, the associated overhead currently requires a LN channel to produce 16 transactions just to break-even under ideal 1sat/byte circumstances and substantially more as the fee rate goes up.
Further, the Lightning network can provide no guarantee in its current state to maintain/reduce fees to 1sat/byte.
submitted by CaptainPatent to btc [link] [comments]

[PLEASE READ] ZClassic > BitcoinPrivate Snapshot/Fork Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) MEGATHREAD 2.0

I’ve been seeing a lot of repeated questions being asked every day so an updated FAQ/Megathread to address all of those questions will be detailed here. If we are missing something, please feel free to let us know and we will add it. We will try to edit this posting as more information becomes available.
Keep in mind the official Bitcoin Private Support portal has now been launched. We have a live chat feature to chat with support, as well as a knowledge base. Please visit the portal at support.btcprivate.org and use the knowledge base’s search function before asking other users.
Snapshot/Fork FAQ
Claiming BTCP Coins
BTCP/ZCL Exchange and Wallet Support
Donations and Contributions program
BTCP Mining
Wallet Troubleshooting
Miscellaneous/BTCP Project Questions
Donate towards the BTCP contribution team, Your donations are 100% voluntary but they are much appreciated!
ZCL: t1gsePJZ6ojJYygj3PWMGJfojPUoMd5AVfU
BTC: 14Xmfm9jf4h1h4RXZBQCFK6i4LWibqWVPu
LTC: LNYzDrUeX6PSecu4sL4eZkuJGaSXnf8GUH
BTCP Related Important Links
For the official list of links from the BTCP Github, refer to the repo.
Just a re-iteration, the BTCP team has launched the support portal offering resources ranging from live support from our teams, as well as a knowledge base that is constantly being updated. https://support.btcprivate.org Again, please feel free to let me know any questions that’s not currently listed above and we will do our best to answer and include it in the megathread.
submitted by BestServerNA to ZClassic [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Halving 2020

Bitcoin Halving: Bitcoin Halving happens in intervals of 210,000 blocks, which is approximately every 4 years. Bitcoin miners are currently regarded 12.5 BTC once a block is mined successfully. The next Bitcoin halving will take place in May 2020 and miners rewards will be 6.25 BTC post Bitcoin halving.
By 2025, it is projected that the total capitalisation of digital assets (tokenised traditional assets and cryptocurrencies) is going to exceed $5 trillion and mining certainly plays a major part in that.
Vital mining purpose: In addition to increasing the wealth of miners, mining serves a second and vital purpose: It is the only way to release new cryptocurrency into circulation. In other words, miners fulfil the function of banks that "mint" currency.
In February of 2019, there were a little over 17.5 million Bitcoin in circulation. Aside from the coins minted via the genesis block (the very first block created by Bitcoin founder Satoshi Nakamoto himself), every single one of those Bitcoin came into existence because of miners. In the absence of miners, Bitcoin would still exist and be usable, but there would never be any additional Bitcoin. There will come a time when Bitcoin mining ends; per the Bitcoin Protocol, the number of Bitcoin will be capped at 21 million.
Bitcoin halving increases value: The Cryptocurrency Bitcoin is mined in units called "blocks." As of the time of writing, the reward for completing a block is 12.5 Bitcoin. As of today in December of 2019, the price of Bitcoin is $7,300, which means a miner would earn (12.5 x $7,300) = $91,250.
When Bitcoin was first mined in 2009, mining one block would earn a miner 50 BTC. In 2012, this was halved to 25 BTC. By 2016, this was halved again to the current level of 12.5 BTC. In 2020 or so, the reward size will be halved again to 6.25 BTC.
The more difficult cryptocurrency mining becomes and the lower the reward for miners is, the more cryptocurrencies will grow in value.
The more the available volume of Bitcoin for mining decreases, the more valuable the crypto becomes. Halving increases prices dramatically and benefits miners who join in early.
Increases in cryptocurrency prices catch the mainstream media’s attention, which drives up public interest and demand. For small mining pools, this means an increase in the percentage share of hash rate on the network as Bitcoin mining remains competitive.
The next halving for Bitcoin is expected around May 2020. Bitcoin investors are already readying themselves for a huge price rally.
In its 10-year history, Bitcoin has always had a price surge in the months ahead of its block halving. The price starts to turn bullish gradually as Bitcoin nears its next block halving. While the market experiences a brief decrease at this time, this leads to a long-term increase in the price.
Decrease in Bitcoin supply: During the last Bitcoin block halving, the circulating supply was near the maximum supply of Bitcoin in existence. In the past, when the block reward halving of Bitcoin occurred, the circulating supply of the asset was still estimated to be close to its maximum circulating supply. However, the case is different this time.
Exchange mismanagement, private key losses, and dormant addresses have resulted in millions of Bitcoins lost forever on the blockchain.
This has further reduced the circulating supply of Bitcoin significantly. According to Chainalysis (the blockchain analysis company), about 4 million Bitcoins were lost in 2017 alone and millions more were lost in 2018. With the upcoming Bitcoin block halving in 2020, the circulating supply of the cryptocurrency will reduce even more and drive the value up.
Changes in mining difficulty: Changes in mining difficulty over time are inevitable. In order to overcome it, MintMine plans to upgrade 100% of the equipment every 1 year. This is why MintMine dedicates 10% of all Bitcoins generated and both of it’s reserves to the modernisation and expansion of its mining equipment. While there is no guarantee, the goal of this approach is to keep the % of mining reward which goes to MintMine token holders fairly constant, even as hash rates/difficulty increase over time. Since it is impossible to accurately predict hashing power of equipment in the next 5 years, in projections we have deducted 25% from mined output as “Bitcoin difficulty cost” which accounts for reduced output with increasing difficulty.
submitted by MintMine to u/MintMine [link] [comments]

Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20191023(Market index 33 — Fear state)

Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20191023(Market index 33 — Fear state)

https://preview.redd.it/folaa2ztw9u31.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0aaa8476acb68252087ddf0558d293b5a9a9392

Germany Warns Of Privacy Token Usage In Money Laundering And Terrorism According to Cointelegraph, the German Federal Ministry of Finance has expressed concerns about rising use of privacy tokens due to their association with criminal activities and difficulties in tracking them. Published on Oct 19, the ministry’s “First Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing National Risk Assessment” for 2018–2019 provided analysis aimed at the identification of existing and future risks in the field of anti-money laundering (AML) and terrorism financing (TF) in Germany. Among other challenges, the report examines circulation of cryptocurrencies in the darknet for criminal purposes.
State Probe Of Facebook Expands To 47 Attorneys General According to Reuters news flash, the state probe of Facebook on allegations that the company put consumer data at risk and pushed up advertising rates has expanded to attorneys general from 47 states and territories, New York Attorney General Letitia James said on Tuesday, October 22 in a statement.
Bank Of Lithuania Becomes First Market Regulator To Issue Guidelines On STOs According to coinpage, Bank of Lithuania has become the first of market regulators to issue guidelines on STOs. The new guidelines are focussed on the classification of security tokens, assessing specific cases and providing recommendations related to the issue of the security tokens and also clarify on applicable legal regulation. Furthermore, enterprises planning to use the STO method will need to comply with EU and national legislation regulating capital-raising activities.
TBCASoft, IBM And SoftBank Announced A Mobile Payment Blockchain Blockchain platform TBCASoft, technology behemoth IBM and telecommunications conglomerate SoftBank announced on Oct 22 a collaboration to adopt a cross-carrier telecommunications blockchain payment solution.

Encrypted project calendar(October 23, 2019)

MIOTA/IOTA: IOTA (MIOTA) IOTA will host a community event on October 23rd at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles with the theme “Connecting the I3 Market and Experiencing Purchase and Sales Data.” BTC/Bitcoin: The WBS World Blockchain Summit (Middle East) will be held in Dubai from October 23rd to 24th. Cardano (ADA) and 1 other: 23 October 2019 WBS Dubai “One of a kind gathering of 500+ curated & pre-qualified investors, CEOs, CIOs, CTOs, Heads of Blockchain, Chief Digital Officers CloakCoin (CLOAK): 23 October 2019 (or earlier) CloakCoin Competition “CloakCoin competition : solve the CloakCoin ENIGMA transaction, 3rd round.” Loom Network (LOOM): 23 October 2019 Singapore Meetup “Unstack the Stack Series: Loom Network” from 6:30–8:30 PM (SST). BTGS/Bitdog: ZG.COM will open the BTGS currency and coin transfer business at 14:00 on October 23, and open the BTGS/USDT transaction pair on October 23 at 18:18. Waltonchain (WTC): 23 October 2019 Transfers Suspended “$WTC deposits and withdrawals on #TaibiExchange will be suspended from 00:00 Oct 22 (UTC+8) and are estimated to resume at 15:00 Oct 23

Encrypted project calendar(October 24, 2019)

BCN/Bytecoin: Bytecoin (BCN) released the hidden amount of the Bytecoin block network on October 24. Horizen (ZEN): 24 October 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA. ANT/Aragon: Aragon (ANT) Aragon Network will hold the theme “DAO: ICO and DeFi next step” in Hong Kong on October 24th? DATA/Streamr DATAcoin: Streamr DATAcoin (DATA) Streamr Network Technology Exchange and Project Development Conference will be held in London on October 24th. Lisk (LSK): 24 October 2019 Coding Workshop — Berlin “During this workshop you will acquire the skills to create custom transactions with the Lisk Alpha SDK using Node.js.” BTU Protocol (BTU): 24 October 2019 Africa IT Expo “Our co-founder @vidal007 will be speaking at upcoming @africa_aitex [African IT Expo] held in #Rabat #Morocco on 24th of October.” Matrix AI Network (MAN): 24 October 2019 YouTube AMA YouTube AMA from 3PM, October 24 (GMT+8). Utrum (OOT): 24 October 2019 AtomicDex Listing “We are pleased to announce that Utrum coin OOT is getting listed on Komodo Platform Decentral Exchange — AtomicDEX. “

Encrypted project calendar(October 25, 2019)

ADA/Cardano: Cardano (ADA) The Ada community will host a community gathering in the Dominican Republic for the first time on October 25. Crypto.com Coin (CRO): 25 October 2019 Live AMA with CEO “Live AMA with our CEO @Kris_HK on @cryptocom’s Twitter next Friday, 25 October, 11AM HKT.” GST/GSTCOIN: GSTCOIN(GST)LBank will be online GST on October 25, 2019 at 16:00 (UTC+8), open trading pair: GST/USDT, GST/ETH.

Encrypted project calendar(October 26, 2019)

KAT/Kambria: Kambria (KAT) Kambria will host the 2019 Southern California Artificial Intelligence and Data Science Conference in Los Angeles on October 26th with IDEAS. BTC/Bitcoin: CoinAgenda Global Summit will be held in Las Vegas from October 26th to 28th Horizen (ZEN): 26 October 2019 (or earlier) ZEN 2.0.19 Upgrade Zen 2.0.19 upgrade at block #610000, which is expected around October 26.

Encrypted project calendar(October 27, 2019)

ICON (ICX): 27 October 2019 Money 20/20 USA Event Money 20/20 USA in Las Vegas from October 27–30.

Encrypted project calendar(October 28, 2019)

LTC/Litecoin: Litecoin (LTC) 2019 Litecoin Summit will be held from October 28th to October 29th in Las Vegas, USA BTC/Bitcoin: Mt.Gox changes the debt compensation plan submission deadline to October 28 ZEC/Zcash: Zcash (ZEC) will activate the Blossom Agreement on October 28th Stellar (XLM): 28 October 2019 Protocol 12 Upgrade Vote Horizon v0.22.0 has been released, which supports Protocol 12. This gives everyone ample time to prepare for the Protocol 12 upgrade vote Celsius (CEL) and 3 others: 28 October 2019 Litecoin Summit “…The Litecoin Summit offers two fun, jam-packed days with something for everyone.” XFOC (XFOC): The IDAX platform will be online XFOC and will open the XFOC/USDT trading pair at 13:00 on October 28. MEDIUM (MDM): The IDAX platform lists MDM and will open MDM/BTC trading pairs on October 28th at 15:00. ZB/ ZB Blockchain: The “2019 Hamburg Intercontinental Dialogue Conference” hosted by ZB.com will be held from October 28th to November 9th at the Four Seasons Hotel Hamburg, Germany. BQT (BQTX): 28 October 2019 Down for Maintenance BQTX.com will be down for maintenance on the 28th of October from 7 to 12am UTC.

Encrypted project calendar(October 29, 2019)

BTC/Bitcoin: The 2nd World Encryption Conference (WCC) will be held in Las Vegas from October 29th to 31st. ICON (ICX): 29 October 2019 Decentralization “As a result, the decentralization schedule of the ICON Network has been changed from September 24, 2019 to October 29, 2019.” Ark (ARK): and 10 others 29 October 2019 WCC 2019 Second annual Blockchain and Cryptocurrency Technology event, World Crypto Conference (WCC), October 29th — October 31, 2019. Insifa (ISF): 29 October 2019 Prototype Alpha “We from Insifa have decided to be more open. Our Prototype will be developed in scrum. This means new releases every two weeks.”

Encrypted project calendar(October 30, 2019)

MIOTA/IOTA: IOTA (MIOTA) IOTA will host a community event on October 30th at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles on the topic “How to store data on IOTA Tangle.” TRON (TRX): 30 October 2019 SFBW19 Afterparty “TRON Official SFBW19 Afterparty from 7–10:30 PM in San Francisco.” Horizen (ZEN): 30 October 2019 Horizen Quarterly Update Join our first Quarterly Update on October the 30th at 5 PM UTC/ 1 PM EST. Deeper look into Engineering, BD, Marketing, and more. Aeternity (AE): 30 October 2019 Hardfork “The third hardfork of the æternity Mainnet is scheduled for October 30, 2019.” Valor Token (VALOR): 30 October 2019 Transaction Fees Resume “It’s September and the SMART VALOR Platform is still waiving transaction fees for all members, until October 30th!” Aragon (ANT): 30 October 2019 Singapore Meetup “Aragon on DAOs and DeFi” from 6:30–8:30 PM. Kambria (KAT): 30 October 2019 Outliers Hashed Awards Outliers Hashed awards from October 30–31. Ethereum Classic (ETC): 30 October 2019 Cohort Demo Day “ETC Labs hosts it’s 2nd Cohort Demo Day. Learn about the companies and project being accelerated through the Ethereum Classic ecosystem.”

Encrypted project calendar(October 31, 2019)

Spendcoin (SPND): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Cross Ledger Mainnet “Cross Ledger Mainnet Release and SPND Token Swap,” during October 2019. Spendcoin (SPND): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Blkchn University Beta “Blockchain University Beta goes live,” during October 2019. Stellar (XLM): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Minor Release “We will have 6 Minor Releases in 2019; one each in February, March, May, June, August, and October.” Bitcoin SV (BSV): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) BSV Conference Seoul No additional information. Seele (SEELE): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Public Network Mainne launch has been moved to Oct 31 . Howdoo (UDOO): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Howdoo Live on Huawei Howdoo begins its exciting partnership with Huawei with listing as a featured app starting in October. Chiliz (CHZ): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) App Soft Launch Soft launch of Socios App by end of October. Dent (DENT): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Loyalty Program “Afterburner loyalty program launch for all 21,6 Million mobile #DENT users will be in October!” IceChain (ICHX): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Wallet Release IceChain releases wallet during October. Chiliz (CHZ): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) New Partnerships New sports and new teams joining Socios (+more updates and events) will be announced in the upcoming weeks. Horizen (ZEN): 31 October 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA. PCHAIN (PI): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) New Website No additional information. IOST (IOST): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) New Game on IOST “Eternal Fafnir, a new role-playing game developed by INFUN is coming to you in Oct.” Achain (ACT): 31 October 2019 Mainnet 2.0 Launch “… The main network is officially scheduled to launch on October 31.” Mithril (MITH):31 October 2019 Burn “MITH burn will take place on 2019/10/31 2pm UTC+8. “ Aergo (AERGO): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Aergo Lite V1.0 Release AergoLite, which brings blockchain compatibility to billions of devices using SQLite, released during October 2019. TE-FOOD (TFD): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Complementary Product “Development of a new, complementary product with a new partner, which we hope to be launched in September-October.” Edge (DADI): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Full Open Source Code base for the network fully open-sourced in September or October. BlockStamp (BST): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) ASIC Miner Prototype In orderr to ensure BlockStamps continued decentralization, we will release a BST ASIC miner for testing. Perlin (PERL): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) SSA Partnership “Perlin has partnered with the Singapore Shipping Association to create the International E-Registry of Ships (IERS)” Skrumble Network (SKM): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Exchange Release “3rd dApp: Exchange Release,” during October 2019. EDC Blockchain (EDC): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Blockchain Marketplace “As you already know, our ECRO blockchain marketplace is ready for release, and will open to the global community in October!” BlockStamp (BST): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) ASIC Miner Prototype In orderr to ensure BlockStamps continued decentralization, we will release a BST ASIC miner for testing. XinFin Network (XDCE): 31 October 2019 Homebloc Webinar “XinFin — Homebloc Webinar 2019” from 9–10 PM. Akropolis (AKRO): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Alpha Release “Delivers the initial mainnet implementation of protocol. All building blocks will be united to one product.” Hyperion (HYN): 31 October 2019 (or earlier) Economic Model The final version of the HYN Economic Model launches in October.

Encrypted project calendar(November 1, 2019)

INS/Insolar: The Insolar (INS) Insolar wallet and the redesigned Insolar Block Explorer will be operational on November 1, 2019. VeChain (VET):”01 November 2019 BUIDLer Reunion Party BUIDLer Reunion Party in San Francisco from 8–11 PM. uPlexa (UPX): 01 November 2019 Steadfast Storm — PoS/PoW split (Utility nodes ie. master nodes) — Upcoming Anonymity Network much like TOR — Privacy-based DApps — Reduced network fees. Enjin Coin (ENJ): 01 November 2019 MFT Binding “ICYMI: On Enjin Coin’s 2nd anniversary (November 1), Enjin MFTs will be bound to hodlers’ blockchain addresses…” Auxilium (AUX):01 November 2019 AUX Interest Distribution Monthly interest distribution by Auxilium Interest Distribution Platform for coinholders. Also supports charity. Havy (HAVY):01 November 2019 Token Buyback “Havy tokens buyback, Only in 1 exchange between Idex, Mercatox & Hotbit. The exchange depends on the most lower sell wall.”

Encrypted project calendar(November 2, 2019)

Kambria (KAT): 02 November 2019 VietAI Summit 2019 Kambria joins forces with VietAI for the annual VietAI Summit, with top experts from Google Brain, NVIDIA, Kambria, VietAI, and more!

Encrypted project calendar(November 4, 2019)

Stellar (XLM): 04 November 2019 Stellar Meridian Conf. Stellar Meridian conference from Nov 4–5 in Mexico City. Cappasity (CAPP): 04 November 2019 Lisbon Web Summit Lisbon Web Summit in Lisbon, Portugal from November 4–7.

Encrypted project calendar(November 5, 2019)

Nexus (NXS): 05 November 2019 Tritium Official Release “Remember, Remember the 5th of November, the day Tritium changed Distributed Ledger. Yes, this is an official release date.” NEM (XEM): 05 November 2019 Innovation Forum — Kyiv NEM Foundation Council Member Anton Bosenko will be speaking in the upcoming International Innovation Forum in Kyiv on November 5, 2019.

Encrypted project calendar(November 6, 2019)

STEEM/Steem: The Steem (STEEM) SteemFest 4 conference will be held in Bangkok from November 6th to 10th. KIM/Kimcoin: Kimcoin (KIM) Bitfinex will be online at KIM on November 6, 2019 at 12:00 (UTC).

Encrypted project calendar(November 7, 2019)

XRP (XRP): 07 November 2019 Swell 2019 Ripple hosts Swell from November 7th — 8th in Singapore. BTC/Bitcoin: Malta The A.I. and Blockchain summit will be held in Malta from November 7th to 8th.

Encrypted project calendar(November 8, 2019)

BTC/Bitcoin: The 2nd Global Digital Mining Summit will be held in Frankfurt, Germany from October 8th to 10th. IOTX/IoTeX: IoTex (IOTX) will participate in the CES Expo on November 08

Encrypted project calendar(November 9, 2019)

CENNZ/Centrality: Centrality (CENNZ) will meet in InsurTechNZ Connect — Insurance and Blockchain on October 9th in Auckland.

Encrypted project calendar(November 11, 2019)

PAX/Paxos Standard: Paxos Standard (PAX) 2019 Singapore Financial Technology Festival will be held from November 11th to 15th, and Paxos Standard will attend the conference.

Encrypted project calendar(November 12, 2019)

BTC/Bitcoin: The CoinMarketCap Global Conference will be held at the Victoria Theatre in Singapore from November 12th to 13th
https://preview.redd.it/uvnuirkww9u31.png?width=504&format=png&auto=webp&s=737fdd29c36f554223c9e7473cf843c60fe2bb6a

Recently, bitcoin made a few attempts to gain strength above the $8,300 resistance area against the US Dollar. BTC price even spiked above the $8,350 level, but it failed to continue higher.
As a result, a swing high was formed near $8,323 and the price started a fresh decline. During the decline, there was a break below a couple of important supports near $8,100 and $8,200. Moreover, there was a break below a short term ascending channel with support near $8,240 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
Finally, bitcoin traded below the $8,100 support area and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average. It is now trading below the $8,000 level and a low was formed near $7,932.
Review previous articles: https://medium.com/@to.liuwen

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LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/liu-wei-294a12176/
submitted by liuidaxmn to u/liuidaxmn [link] [comments]

[PLEASE READ] ZClassic > BitcoinPrivate Snapshot/Fork Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) MEGATHREAD 2.0

I’ve been seeing a lot of repeated questions being asked every day so an updated FAQ/Megathread to address all of those questions will be detailed here. If we are missing something, please feel free to let us know and we will add it. We will try to edit this posting as more information becomes available.
Keep in mind the official Bitcoin Private Support portal has now been launched. We have a live chat feature to chat with support, as well as a knowledge base. Please visit the portal at support.btcprivate.org and use the knowledge base’s search function before asking other users.
Snapshot/Fork FAQ
Claiming BTCP Coins
BTCP/ZCL Exchange and Wallet Support
Donations and Contributions program
BTCP Mining
Wallet Troubleshooting
Miscellaneous/BTCP Project Questions
Donate towards the BTCP contribution team, Your donations are 100% voluntary but they are much appreciated!
ZCL: t1gsePJZ6ojJYygj3PWMGJfojPUoMd5AVfU
BTC: 14Xmfm9jf4h1h4RXZBQCFK6i4LWibqWVPu
LTC: LNYzDrUeX6PSecu4sL4eZkuJGaSXnf8GUH
BTCP Related Important Links
For the official list of links from the BTCP Github, refer to the repo.
Just a re-iteration, the BTCP team has launched the support portal offering resources ranging from live support from our teams, as well as a knowledge base that is constantly being updated. https://support.btcprivate.org Again, please feel free to let me know any questions that’s not currently listed above and we will do our best to answer and include it in the megathread.
submitted by BestServerNA to BitcoinPrivate [link] [comments]

A tour of the Gridcoin wallet

Hey guys, I thought I would put together an in-depth tour of the Gridcoin wallet software for all of our recent newcomers. Here I'll be outlining all the features and functions the windows GUI wallet has to offer, along with some basic RPC command usage. I'll be using the windows wallet as an example, but both linux and macOS should be rather similar. I'll be including as many pictures as I can as embedded hyperlinks.
Edit: Note that since I originally made this there has been a UI update, so your client will be different colors but all the button locations are in the same place.
This is my first post like this, so please forgive me if this appears a little scatter-brained.
This will not cover the mining setup process for pool or solo miners.
When you launch the wallet software for the first time you should be greeted with this screen.

OVERVIEW TAB

After that prompt, you should be left sitting on the main overview tab with several fields on it.
From top to bottom:

SEND TAB

Now onto the other tabs on the left side. Currently we're on the Overview tab, lets move down to the Send tab. This tab it pretty self-explanatory, you use it if you want to send coins, but I'll go over the fields here:
  • Pay To: Enter a valid gridcoin address to send coins too. Gridcoin addresses always start with an S or and R.
  • Label: Enter a label here and it will put that address in your "address book" under that label for later use. You can leave it blank if you don't want it in your address book.
  • Message: Enter a message here if you want it attached to your transaction.
  • Amount: How many coins you want to send.
  • Add Attachment: Leave this alone, it is broken.
  • Track Coins: This doesn't do anything.

RECEIVE TAB

Now down to the Receive tab. Here you should have a single address listed. If you double click on the label field, you can edit it's label.
  • New: Generate a new address.
If you click on an address, the rest of the options should be clickable.
  • Copy: Copy the selected address to your clipboard.
  • Show QR Code: Show a scan-able QR code for the selected address.
  • Sign Message: Cryptographically sign a message using the selected address.

TRANSACTIONS TAB

The Transactions tab is pretty boring considering we have no transactions yet. But as you can see there are some sorting tools at the top for when you do have transactions listed.

ADDRESS BOOK TAB

The Address Book is where all the addresses you've labeled (that aren't yours) will show up.
  • Verify Message: Verifies a message was signed by the selected address.
The rest of the functions are similar to the functions on the Receive tab.

VOTING TAB

Onto the Voting tab. There wont be any polls because we aren't in sync yet.
  • Reload Polls: Pretty self-explanatory, I've never had to use this.
  • Load History: By default, the wallet will only display active polls. If you want to view past polls you can use this.
  • Create Poll: You can create a network-wide poll. You must have 100,000 coins as a requirement to make a poll. (Creating a poll does not consume the coins)
Here's what the Voting tab will look like once you're in sync

CONTEXT BAR

Now onto the context bar menus on the top.
Under File you have:
  • Backup Wallet/Config: This lets you backup your wallet configuration file just in case.
  • Export: You can export your Transactions tab or Address Book in CSV format.
  • Sign message: Does the same thing as on the Receive tab.
  • Verify message: Does the same thing as on the Address Book tab.
  • Exit: Close the wallet.
Under Settings you have:
  • Encrypt Wallet: Encrypts your wallet with a password. (we'll come back to this)
  • Change Passphrase: Allows you to change your encryption password.
  • Options: Opens the options menu. (We'll come back to this)
Under Community you have:
Under Advanced you have:
  • Advanced Configuration: Opens the Advanced Configuration menu. (Not so advanced if you ask me)
  • Neural Network: Allows you to view solo miners project statistics. It will be largely blank if you're not in sync yet.
  • FAQ: Don't touch this, It is broken.
  • Foundation: Don't touch this, It is broken.
  • Rebuild Block Chain: Starts the client syncing from 0. Don't worry, using this will not make you lose coins.
  • Download Blocks: Downloads the latest official snapshot, can help speed up syncing. The download progress tends to sit at 99.99% for a long time, don't worry, it's working.
Under Help you have:
  • Debug window: Opens the debug window. (We'll come back to this)
  • Diagnostics: Don't touch this, it is broken. This has since been fixed. You can use this to see if there is anything wrong with your setup.
  • About Gridcoin: Opens the About Dialog. This gives you your client version and other information.

OPTIONS

Now back to the options menu under Settings > Options.
Here we have the options menu main tab:
  • Pay transaction fee: The transaction fee that will be automatically paid when you make a transaction.
  • Reserve: You can reserve an amount so that it will always be available for spending.
  • Start Gridcoin on system login: Pretty self-explanatory
  • Detach databases at shutdown: Speeds up shutdown, but causes your blockchain file to no longer be portable.
On the Network tab:
  • Map port using UPnP: Attempts to connect to nodes through UPnP.
  • Connect through SOCKS proxy: Allows you to connect through a proxy.
The window tab is pretty self-explanatory.
The Display tab is also pretty self-explanatory, with the exception of:
  • Display coin control features (experts only!): This allows you to have a great deal of control over the coins in your wallet, check this for now and I'll explain how to use it further down. Don't forget to click "Apply".

ENCRYPTING YOUR WALLET

Now that all of that is out of the way. The first thing you'll want to do is encrypt your wallet. This prevents anybody with access to your computer from sending coins. This is something I would recommend everyone do.
Go to Settings > Encrypt Wallet and create a password. YOU CANNOT RECOVER YOUR COINS IF YOU FORGET YOUR PASSWORD.
Your wallet will close and you will have to start it up again. This time when it opens up, you should have a new button in the bottom left. Now if you want to stake you will have to unlock your wallet. Notice the "For staking only" box that is checked by default. If you want to send a beacon for solo mining or vote, you will need to uncheck this box.

GETTING IN SYNC AND ICONS

Before we continue, Let's wait until we're in sync. Depending on your internet speeds, this could take from several hours to over a day or 2. This can be sped up by using Advanced > Download Blocks, but this can still take several hours.
This is what an in-sync client should look like. Notice the green check to the right of the Receive tab. All of these icons give you information when you hover your mouse over them.
The lock
The arrow tells you if you're staking. If you aren't staking, it will tell you why you're not staking. If you are staking it will give you an estimated staking time. Staking is a very random process and this is only an estimate, not a countdown.
The connection bars tell you how many connections to the network you have.
The check tells you if you're in sync.

WHAT IS STAKING?

Now I've said "stake" about a million times so far and haven't explained it. Gridcoin is a Proof of Stake (PoS) coin.
Unlike bitcoins Proof of Work (PoW), PoS uses little system resources, so you can use those resources for scientific work. PoS works by users "Staking" with their balance. The higher the balance, the higher the chance to create, or "stake" a block. This means you need to have a positive balance in order to stake. Theoretically, you can stake with any amount over 0.0125 coins, but in practice it's recommended to have at least 2000 coins to reliably stake.
Staking is important for solo miners, because they get paid when they stake. Pool miners don't need to stake in order to get paid however. So if you want to solo mine, you'll need to buy some coins from an exchange or start in the pool first and move to solo when you have enough coins.
In addition to Research Rewards for miners, anyone who holds coins (solo miners, pool miners, and investors) gets 1.5% interest annually on top of your coins. So it can be beneficial for pool miners to stake as well.
Here is a snippet of what a research rewards transaction looks like from my personal wallet. I have a label on that address of "Payout address" as you can see here.

UTXOS AND COIN CONTROL

At this point you'll need some coins. You can use one of our faucets like this one or this one to test coin control out.
First let me explain what a UTXO is. UTXO stands for Unspent Transaction Output. Say you have an address with 0 coins in it, and someone sends you 10 coins like I've done here. Those 10 coins are added to that address in the form of a UTXO, so we have an address with one 10 coin UTXO in it.
Now we receive another 5 coins at the same address, like so. Now we have an address with one 10 coin UTXO and one 5 coin UTXO. But how do we view how our addresses are split up into different UTXOs?
Earlier we checked the "Display coin control features" box in Settings > Options > Display. Once that's checked you'll notice there's another section in the Send tab labeled "Coin Control Features". If you click the "Inputs" button, you'll get a new window. And look, there's our 2 UTXOs.
All UTXOs try to stake separately from each other, and remember that the chance a UTXO has to stake is proportional to it's size. So in this situation, my 10 coin UTXO has twice the chance to stake as my 5 coin UTXO. Now wallets, especially ones that make a lot of transactions, can get very fragmented over time. I've fragmented my wallet a little so I can show you what I'm talking about.
How do we clean this up? We can consolidate all this into one UTXO by checking all the boxes on the left and selecting OK.
Now pay attention to the fields on the top:
  • Quantity: The total amount of UTXOs we have selected.
  • Amount: The total amount of coins we have selected.
  • Fee: How much it would cost in fees to send all those UTXOs (more UTXOs = more transaction data = more fees)
  • After Fee: Amount - Fees.
  • Bytes: How large the transaction is in bytes.
  • Priority: How your client would prioritize making a transaction with this specific set of UTXOs selected had you not used coin control.
  • Low Output: If your transaction is less than 0.01 coins (I think).
  • Change: What you will get back in change.
  • custom change address: You can set the address you get your change back at, by default it will generate a new address.
So let's fill out our transaction so we end up with 1 UTXO at the end.
In "Pay To:" Just put any address in your wallet, and for the amount put what it has listed in the "After Fee" Field. Just like this.
Notice how we get no change back.
Now click "Send", we'll be prompted to enter our passphrase and we're asked if we want to pay the fee, go ahead and click "Yes".
Now if we go back to the Overview tab we get this funky icon. If you hover your mouse over it, it says "Payment to yourself", and the -0.0002 GRC is the network transaction fee.
(Ignore the first one, that was me fragmenting my wallet)
Now if we look at the Coin Control menu, we can see that we've slimmed our wallet down from 7 UTXOs to 1.
Now why would you want to use coin control?
2 Situations:
  1. UTXOs less than 0.0125 coins cannot stake. So you can combine a lot of tiny, useless UTXOs into 1 bigger one that can stake.
  2. After a UTXO stakes, it cannot stake for another 16 hours. So if you have 1 large UTXO that is big enough to stake more than once every 16 hours, you can split it into smaller UTXOs which can allow you to stake slightly more often.
  3. By default, the wallet will always generate a new address for change, which can make your wallet get very messy if you're sending lots of transactions. Keep in mind that more UTXOs = larger transactions = more fees.
Sidenote - When you stake, you will earn all research rewards owed reguardless of which UTXO staked. However, you'll earn the 1.5% interest for that UTXO. Not your whole wallet.

FORKING

A fork is when the network splits into multiple chains, with part of the network on each chain. A fork can happen when 2 blocks are staked by different clients at the same time or very close to the same time, or when your client rejects a block that should have been accepted due to a bug in the code or through some other unique circumstance.
How do I know if I'm on a fork?
Generally you can spot a fork by looking at the difficulty on your Overview tab. With current network conditions, if your difficulty is below 0.1, then you're probably on a fork.
You can confirm this by comparing your blockhash with someone elses, like a block explorer.
Go to [Help > Debug Window > Console]. This is the RPC console, we can use to do a lot of things. You can type help to get a list of commands, and you can type help [command you need help with] (without the brackets) to get information on a command. We'll be using the getblockhash [block number] command.
Type getblockhash [block number] in the console, but replace [block number] with the number listed next to the "Blocks:" field on the Overview tab.
This will spit out a crazy string of characters, this is the "blockhash" of that block.
Now head over to your favorite block explorer, I'll be using gridcoinstats. Find the block that you have the hash for, use the search bar or just find it in the list of blocks.
Now compare your hash with the one gridcoinstats gives you. Does it match?
If it matches, then you're probably good to go. If it matches but you still think you're on a fork, then you can try other block explorers, such as gridcoin.network or neuralminer.io.
If it doesn't match, then you need to try to get off that fork.
How do I get off a fork?
  1. Just wait for an hour or two. 95% of the time your client is able to recover itself from a fork given a little time.
  2. Restart the client, wait a few minutes to see if it fixes itself. If it doesn't restart again and wait. Repeat about 4 or 5 times.
  3. Find where the fork started. Using the getblockhash command, go back some blocks and compare hashes with that on a block explorer so you can narrow down what the last block you and the block explorer had in common. Then use reorganize [the last block hash you had in common]. Note that reorganize takes a blockhash, not a block number.
  4. Use Advanced > Download Blocks.
  5. If none of this works, you can take a look at social media (reddit/steemit) and see what other people are saying.

CONFIGURATION FILE

Your configuration file depends on your operation system:
  • On Windows: %appdata%\GridcoinResearch\
  • On Linux: ~/.GridcoinResearch/
  • On MacOS: /Users/USERNAME/Library/Application/Support/GridcoinResearch/
And it should look like this.
If you open up your gridcoinresearch.conf, you'll see the default one it generated. Note that if you entered your email earlier, the first line will have your email on it instead of "investor". If you decided you want to solo mine but didn't enter your email when you first started the wallet, go ahead and put your email on the first line in place of "investor". If you're a pool miner, just leave it as "investor".
Next, it's recommended that you use the addnodes on the gridcoin wiki. So our gridcoinresearch.conf will look like this.
A useful line for solo miners is PrimaryCPID=[YOUR CPID]. Sometimes your wallet can pick up on the wrong CPID so it's good to have that in there if you're solo mining.

RUNNING A LISTENING NODE

A listening node is a node that listens for blocks and transactions broadcasted from nodes and forwards them on to other nodes. For example, during the syncing process when you're getting your node running for the first time, you're downloading all the blocks from listening nodes. So running a listening node helps support the network.
Running a gridcoin listening node is simple. All you need to do is add listen=1 to your gridcoinresearch.conf and you need to forward port 32749 on your router.
If you don't know how to port forward, I'd suggest googling "How to port forward [your router manufacturer]".

QUICK LINKS

Gridcoin.us Official Website
Gridcoin.science Unofficial Website
Gridcoinstats.eu Block Explorer
NeuralMiner.io Block Explorer
Gridcoinstats.eu Faucet
Gridcoin.ch Faucet
Gridcoin Wiki
Gridcoin Github
GRCPool
Arikado Pool
And that's all I have for now!
I plan to keep this post up-to-date with changes in the client. So if anyone has any suggestions, have clarifications they want made, or maybe I got something wrong, then please feel free to leave a comment below or PM me!
submitted by Personthingman2 to gridcoin [link] [comments]

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